Okay now—here’s the middle-seed matchup that’s going to draw everyone’s bracket eyes on Thursday. Drake’s defense is built to frustrate and Missouri’s explosive offense is primed to blow up, but if the Bulldogs can control the tempo, they’ll force the Tigers to play their game. And that’s exactly what so many upset-hungry spectators hope. For this heavily-anticipated six-seed vs. eleven-seed marquee, I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Round of 64 college basketball game between Missouri and Drake.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Missouri vs. Drake preview, prediction
Missouri isn’t just here to compete—they’re here to unleash a full-throttle offensive assault. With shooters and playmakers scattered across the floor, the Tigers can score in the blink of an eye. Mark Mitchell (16.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) is a matchup nightmare with his versatility, while Caleb Grill (14.6 PPG, 42.7% from three) is a sniper off the bench, capable of draining threes and shaking up defensive plans. Tamar Bates (13.9 PPG, 50-40-90 splits) is an offensive juggernaut, and with Tony Perkins (11.3 PPG, 2.4 APG) crashing the paint like a wrecking ball, Missouri’s offensive machine has left a trail of scorched nets this season. After all, they’ve spent the year planted in KenPom’s top-10 offensive efficiency rankings for a reason.
But here’s the catch: For all that firepower, their defense is more like a leaky faucet than a brick wall. Missouri ranks just 74th in defensive efficiency, with no true rim protector to speak of. That leaves them wide open for teams that can attack the paint—like Drake. Sure, they’re good at forcing turnovers, but their -2.2 rebound margin and frequent foul issues leave plenty of room for the Bulldogs to exploit. Remember what Florida and Alabama learned the hard way? If Missouri doesn’t tighten up on defense, their offensive fireworks could get snuffed out fast.
Then there’s Drake—the team that’ll make you earn every point. Their defense is a nightmare for anyone trying to find rhythm, ranking top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs force turnovers on 20.1% of opponent possessions, and they’ll slow the game down to their crawl, ranking 351st in adjusted tempo. Bennett Stirtz (19.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) isn’t flashy, but he’s as steady as they come, dictating pace and keeping teams off balance. Add in Drake’s +4.2 rebound margin over their last five games, and they’ll wear down opponents with their relentless effort on the glass. If Drake can force Missouri into a methodical game, they’ll have a real shot at pulling off this upset.
Drake at Missouri pick, best bet
I know—the Missouri -6.5 spread looks tempting. Don’t be fooled. The Tigers’ defensive weaknesses—no rim protection, rebounding struggles—open the door for Drake. If the Bulldogs can lock down, limit second-chance points, and dictate the pace, they’ll stifle Missouri’s offensive explosiveness. Sure, Missouri can run away with this early, but if Drake can keep it ugly, exploit mistakes, and keep the game close, they’ll make this a fight until the end.
Drake +6.5 (or the outright upset). Drake isn’t just going to roll over. They’ve got the defense to stifle Missouri, and they’re not afraid to turn this game into a slow, grind-it-out battle. The Tigers will have to bring more than just offense to break through.
And, speaking of breaking through—should Drake win this game, well. That’s a bracket breakthrough (just keeping with the vernacular here, but you know I mean bracket-buster) the West region isn’t going to love.
Best bet: Drake +6.5 (-105)
Tail the Bulldogs to keep it close against the spurned Tigers with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Another outright upset I like: Drake ML (+230)
Tail it with me!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
