Iowa State enters this matchup as a strong favorite, but the Cyclones’ recent dip in form has raised some questions. With a three-seed to their name, they’re still a well-balanced team that boasts top-30 rankings in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. But Lipscomb might just be the hottest team in the nation right now, by some metrics. We’ll take a look at how they square in my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Iowa State and Lipscomb.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout the tournament.
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Iowa State vs. Lipscomb preview, prediction
Their formula for ISU’s success centers on aggressive ball pressure—ranking ninth in turnover rate (forcing turnovers on 22.1% of opponent possessions). With a solid free-throw shooting percentage of 75.7%, they’re capable of controlling the tempo and wearing down opponents. Keshon Gilbert (12.5 PPG, 4.1 APG) and Tamin Lipsey (9.7 PPG, 5.2 APG) lead the charge, while Jaren Holmes (13.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG) provides scoring balance. However, the Cyclones have faced trouble recently, ranking outside the top 35 in total efficiency over their final 10 games and struggling with turnovers (19.5%) and inconsistent three-point shooting (28.8% in Big 12 play). Their lack of depth (under No. 240 in bench minutes) further adds to their vulnerabilities.
Lipscomb, on the other hand, enters this game with momentum after winning 11 of their last 12 games, capped off by a dominant performance in the ASUN Tournament. They boast a top-20 turnover rate (14.4%), and rank third nationally in fewest fouls per game (12.6). Senior forward Jacob Ognacevic (20.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has been the team’s offensive engine, while Will Pruitt (13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG) provides solid secondary scoring. The Bison are strong on defense, but offensively, they’ve struggled against top-tier competition. Lipscomb’s reliance on Ognacevic and their limited bench depth could be problematic when facing a high-caliber opponent like Iowa State.
In their 2024-2025 conference tournament run, Iowa State shot 75.6% from the free-throw line and forced turnovers on 23.1% of opponent possessions. The Cyclones also have a +4.2 rebound margin over the last five games, which will help them dominate the boards against a Lipscomb team that struggles on the glass, ranking just 198th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.8%). Lipscomb, while effective at limiting turnovers, still lacks the depth and size to challenge Iowa State’s rebounding and defensive pressure. The Bison also rank just 312th in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.048 points per possession) over the last month, a concerning stat against Iowa State’s balanced and efficient offense.
Lipscomb vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
Clones cover here. Despite their recent stumbles, Iowa State has the depth, athleticism, and efficiency to overwhelm Lipscomb. With a significant edge in turnover margin (Iowa State at +5.6, Lipscomb at +2.3) and free-throw shooting (75.7% vs. Lipscomb’s 69.5%), the Cyclones should wear down the Bison and cover the spread. Lipscomb’s lack of depth and scoring consistency will keep them from keeping pace with Iowa State’s physicality and pressure.
Best bet: Iowa State -14.5 (-110)
Tail the Cyclones to erase all doubt in the R64 with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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