The marquee matchup of tonight’s five-game NBA slate lost almost all of its intrigue when Los Angeles Lakers superstar Luka Dončić was ruled out of the second night of a back-to-back as the Lakers manage his ankle soreness. The decision leaves Los Angeles without Dončić and LeBron James, with Rui Hachimura possibly not ready to return yet either.
At least the Milwaukee Bucks look like they will play Giannis Antetokounmpo for the 10:30 p.m. matchup, given that he hasn’t missed a game since the All-Star break despite being listed with calf soreness every game. The two-time MVP might be enjoying his most complete season yet, averaging 30.2 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game while virtually eliminating his ineffective three-pointer from his arsenal and replacing it with a lethal midrange shot.
Given Dončić’s absence, it’s not a surprise that Milwaukee is a six-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total is set to 225. Below, I’ve outlined my favorite props centered around the Greek Freak.
Best Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1.5 Points vs. Austin Reaves (-115)
In general, I’m incredibly high on Reaves; after all, he did score 37 points on a 57.7% effective field goal percentage in the one game he’s played without either Dončić or James since the blockbuster deal to acquire the former, almost leading the Lakers to a shocking upset over the Denver Nuggets before falling, 131-126. Overall, he’s been tremendous since James’ injury, even alongside Dončić — 27.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game on 49-39-94 shooting splits is impressive, no matter what — but I’m going to pump the brakes ever so slightly. Reaves still faces an uphill battle if he wants to outscore Antetokounmpo, a player who’s scored fewer than 20 points only twice since the All-Star break.
Analyzing the Los Angeles defense in that game without Dončić and James is a foolhardy exercise, given that the team was also without Jaxson Hayes, Gabe Vincent, and Dorian Finney-Smith, all of whom will play tonight. But allowing the Nuggets to get 35.3 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts — a number that would lead the NBA by a huge margin this season — was far from ideal. Antetokounmpo has led the league in free throw attempts per game in each of the last three seasons, so if the Lakers’ role players, such as Vincent and Finney-Smith — who both rank in the league’s top 100 in fouls per 100 possessions — allow Antetokounmpo to bait them into fouls, he could rack up points at the charity stripe.
Giannis Antetokounmpo U12.5 Rebounds (-115)
However, backing Antetokounmpo to match Reaves in scoring doesn’t necessarily mean I’m low on Los Angeles’ ability to defend him in this game. Between Hayes — who has experienced a career revival and led the NBA in field goal percentage since Dončić joined the roster — Finney-Smith, and Jarred Vanderbilt, the Lakers have the kind of physical defensive-oriented forwards who have vexed Antetokounmpo in the past. Their strategy of employing a combination of those players against post threats like Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokić evokes the strategy that the Toronto Raptors pioneered in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals, slowing down Antetokounmpo by dropping back in the paint with — usually — two of Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, and Marc Gasol.
Plus, Antetokounmpo’s rebounding has decreased slightly since the All-Star break, from 12.2 boards per game before the intermission to 11.7 thereafter. That’s probably not a statistically significant dip, but it does indicate that swapping Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma — whose total rebounding percentage is 1.8 percentage points higher — probably hurts Antetokounmpo more than the loss of backup big Bobby Portis helped him. Plus, he’s nabbed 12 or fewer rebounds in each of his past four games, including in that contest against Los Angeles last Thursday. Five of his nine single-digit rebounding performances have come since the All-Star break.
