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No. 12 Colorado State vs. No. 5 Memphis
Seattle, WA – Friday 2:00pm ET
The 12-seeded Rams opener up favored over 5-seed Memphis, but the moneyline did get as high as -155, so the price has come down since Selection Sunday. Let’s start with the key injury to Memphis, as Tyrese Hunter missed the AAC Championship Game, and was hopping around on the bench in a boot. Assuming he misses this game, that’s a big deal for the Tigers. Hunter played 34 minutes per game this season and shot 40% from downtown, while averaging 13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists.
Now let’s address the other elephant in the room — the Mountain West has been dreadful in recent tournaments, and San Diego State didn’t exactly inspire hope against North Carolina on Tuesday. That said, Colorado State is just about as hot as any team in the country, and in some metrics, rank as a top-10 team over the last month.
Since February 15, the Rams are a perfect 10-0 straight up, including 10-0 ATS, winning every game by eight or more points. Memphis comes in hot too, winning eight in a row, but are also just 7-13 ATS over the last 20 games. CSU has been far exceeding expectations, while Memphis has just been going through the motions.
On paper these teams grade out amazingly even. Two things jump out to me, though. Firstly, I expect the Rams to be much more productive on the offensive side of the ball. CSU ranks 43rd in offensive efficiency, while the Tigers rank just 72nd, and we can expect that number to drop without Hunter. The second thing is tempo, where Memphis plays at a rapid pace (27th in tempo), versus the Rams grinding games out (252nd in tempo).
I think a hotter, healthier Colorado State team winds up more efficient and controlling the pace here, which should be enough to advance to the next round. It also doesn’t hurt that the Rams will have the best player on the floor in this one — NBA prospect Nique Clifford has been scorching hot of late.
March Madness Pick: CSU ML (-125) 2.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
