This matchup between Mississippi State and Baylor is one where the numbers speak volumes, and they suggest it’ll be a battle of efficiency and execution. Mississippi State’s defense has been a problem all season, and the numbers don’t lie. Whether the numbers are the edge, though, is always a question in tournament play—especially in eight-and-nine-seed matchups like this. It’s the first eight/nine matchup of the tournament, and I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Baylor and Mississippi State.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Baylor vs. Mississippi State preview, prediction
Mississippi State better have made some adjustments in opponents’ half-court sets. They rank No. 344 in effective field goal percentage defense over the last 10 games (allowing 48.9% inside the arc, 38.5% from beyond) and No. 330 in 3-point percentage defense (allowing 35.7%). If Baylor can shoot with consistency, they’ll exploit this glaring weakness. Josh Hubbard (17.6 PPG, 4.8 APG) has been brilliant on offense, but the Bulldogs’ defensive struggles, particularly at challenging shots, make them susceptible to teams with scoring versatility. In the SEC Tournament, Mississippi State allowed 35.8% shooting from 3-point range across three games, which further exposes their inability to contest the perimeter.
Baylor, led by freshman VJ Edgecombe (16.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG), is more than capable of taking advantage of Mississippi State’s porous defense. Despite their lack of height—ranking just 211th in average height—the Bears rank No. 30 nationally in offensive rebounding (grabbing 36.0% of their missed shots). This is a major advantage over a Mississippi State squad that ranks just 146th in defensive rebounding percentage (71.4%). Norchad Omier (13.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG) provides muscle in the paint, and Baylor’s ability to secure second-chance opportunities will be pivotal in wearing down the Bulldogs. In Baylor’s Big 12 Tournament run, they grabbed 38.4% of their missed shots, showing the offensive glass can be a key to their success.
But while Baylor’s offensive efficiency is impressive—ranking No. 19 in adjusted offensive efficiency (1.133 points per possession)—defensive inefficiencies linger. Baylor ranks just 59th in defensive efficiency (allowing 97.7 points per 100 possessions), allowing teams to shoot 35.8% from 3-point range (No. 192 in three-point defense). With Mississippi State ranking No. 330 in three-point percentage (29.7%), this could be a major issue for the Bulldogs. If they can’t hit from deep, they’ll struggle to keep up with Baylor’s scoring output. In their Big 12 Tournament games, Baylor allowed 37.4% shooting from three, further solidifying their defensive weaknesses against perimeter shooting.
On the defensive end, Mississippi State is one of the top teams in forcing turnovers, ranking No. 81 nationally in defensive turnover rate (21.1%), but their inability to challenge shots at the rim or on the perimeter will still leave them exposed against Baylor’s athleticism. The Bears also rank No. 20 in offensive efficiency in transition (1.136 points per possession), which should have a field day against the Bulldogs’ slow half-court defense. Baylor’s pace (No. 98 in adjusted tempo) should overpower Mississippi State’s grind-it-out style, especially considering the Bulldogs are just No. 243 in pace (67.0 possessions per game). Baylor was top-10 in fast-break points (18.4 PPG) during their Big 12 Tournament, highlighting their ability to push tempo against teams like Mississippi State.
Free-throw shooting will be crucial for Mississippi State, but they’ve been poor in this department, ranking No. 255 nationally at 66.4% (as a team). In the SEC Tournament, the Bulldogs shot just 64.7% from the line over three games, further emphasizing their struggle to capitalize on free opportunities. In a close game, their inability to capitalize from the line could swing things in Baylor’s favor.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State pick, best bet
At +1, I’m Baylor all the way, here. Despite their defensive flaws, their offensive potency—driven by Edgecombe and Omier—along with their rebounding edge (36.0% offensive rebounding rate, No. 30 nationally) and second-chance opportunities, will be too much for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs’ defensive issues (No. 344 in effective field goal percentage defense, allowing 48.9% from 2-point range) and struggles on offense, particularly in the 3-point (No. 330, 29.7%) and free-throw departments (66.4%, No. 255), were even more glaring in their SEC Tournament run, where they allowed opponents to shoot 35.8% from three and struggled to capitalize at the free-throw line (64.7%).
Baylor’s ability to rebound (38.4% offensive rebounding rate in the Big 12 Tournament) and push the pace, combined with their offensive firepower, will allow them to exploit these weaknesses and come away with the win.
Best bet: Baylor +1 (-105)
Tail the Bears sink their teeth into all that Mississippi State mess with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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