I know. I know.
The term “sleeper” has been overused the past decade. So much so, that’s it’s sort of difficult to even know what a sleeper actually is anymore. With that in mind, let’s set some ground rules. In this article, I will only be advocating for players who are betting taken (on average) past pick 240 in NFBC drafts. Why such an obtuse number? Well, in a 12-team league, the first 240 picks would comprise the first 20 rounds. Fair? Fair.
Now that that’s all out of the way, let’s get to the sleepers.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
1B Tyler Soderstrom, Athletics (NFBC ADP: 287.4)
You’ve probably heard the term “post-hype sleeper” before. I feel like Tyler Soderstrom takes that to a whole new level. The former first-round pick is just 23-years-old and he’s two seasons removed from being a Top 40 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. However, due to a very underwhelming cup of coffee in 2023 and the fact he wears an Athletics jersey, it doesn’t feel like people are excited enough about what Soderstrom pulled off in 2024. Granted, it was only across 213 plate appearances, but Soderstrom hit nine home runs with a .348 expected wOBA and a manageable 24.9% strikeout rate. He obviously didn’t have the at-bats to qualify, but Soderstrom’s 14.6% barrel rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity and 49.6% hard hit rate would’ve all been around the 90th percentile of MLB. He’ll be playing his home games in a Triple-A park in 2025 and it feels like 30 home runs are well within the range of outcomes.
2B/1B Jonathan Aranda, Rays (NFBC ADP: 329.7)
If you miss out on Soderstrom, don’t fret! Jonathan Aranda is pretty similar and he’s going 75 picks later in most drafts. Aranda is another left-handed bat that hasn’t taken a ton of swings at the MLB level, but has flashed enough in his advanced statistical profile to be quite interesting. Aranda only had 143 plate appearances with the Rays in 2024, yet he produced a .195 ISO to go along with a .362 expected wOBA. He also possessed a 16.5% barrel rate that would have been the ninth-highest mark in baseball had he the PAs to qualify. The raw power is easy to see. The only real question with Aranda is volume. The 26-year-old has just 30 career at-bats against LHPs and it remains to be seen if he can even be more than a platoon bat in Kevin Cash’s lineup. Still, Aranda could do damage in 450-500 plate appearances, if that’s the case, especially now that he’ll be playing at least half his games in a replica of Yankee Stadium. That’s certainly worth a small boost to an LHB with power.
OF Andrew Benintendi, White Sox (NFBC ADP: 399.2)
Benintendi injured his hand almost as soon as Spring Training began, though the veteran has stated he believes he can be back by Opening Day. That seems unlikely, though Benintendi did return to game action and DH for Chicago on March 19. Still, however this shakes out, I assume we’ll see the 30-year-old with the White Sox by early April. Benintendi has had a nightmarish run since signing a five-year deal in Chicago, but it wasn’t that long ago that the outfielder hit .304 with a 121 wRC+ in 2022. There were also some reasons for optimism in 2024. Not only did Benintendi match his career-high with 20 home runs, but in his final 235 plate appearances, he slashed .263/.328/.502 with a .355 wOBA. Add in the fact that Benintendi owned the third-lowest BABIP of any qualified hitter (.245) for the season as a whole, and it’s pretty easy to start seeing some upside here — especially at pick 400.
SS Tyler Fitzgerald, Giants (NFBC ADP: 241.4)
I can understand why people look at Fitzgerald’s rookie numbers and immediately see some red flags. The strikeout rate is high (31.7%), his .380 BABIP is unsustainable and, maybe most daunting off all, his .357 wOBA outperformed his far more modest .292 expected mark by a worrisome margin. At the same time, after pick 200, we’re dealing with a lot of flawed fantasy assets. At the end of the day, Fitzgerald is someone who registered 15 long balls and 17 steals in just 341 plate appearances in 2024. In fact, Fitzgerald has hit for power and swiped bags at every level he’s played at. Considering his 100th percentile sprint speed (30.0), I’d say there’s a decent chance that Fitzgerald threatens a 20/30 season in 2025. He’s not a .280 hitter, but if Fitzgerald can find a happy medium between that figure and his .227 expected batting average, he’s going to do some damage this coming year. He just has to start making a little bit more contact. Pretty please.
RP Seth Halvorsen, Rockies (NFBC ADP: 410.5)
Two Rockies? And one of them is a pitcher? How could this possibly go wrong? The funny thing about Halvorsen is that he’s already being drafted well ahead of Tyler Kinley, who is currently projected to start the season as Colorado’s closer. However, it doesn’t take too long a look at Halvorsen’s stuff to see that he’s a ninth inning arm in the making. The 25-year-old started 2024 in Double-A, where he managed to pick up eight saves over 33 appearances. Halvorsen then had a cup of coffee at Triple-A before being called up to the majors in late August. Halvorsen only threw 12.1 innings for the Rockies, but the results were eye-opening — even for a microscopic sample. The RHP’s 1.46 ERA was nice, but his 100.1 mph average fastball velocity and 6.5 K/BB ratio were far more tantalizing. Like most young pitchers with a big arm, Halvorsen has at times struggled with control as a pro. If he can keep his walk rate under 10%, he’s going to be a monster, and the closer’s role will be his before June.
