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No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 BYU
Denver, CO – Thursday 4:05pm ET
VCU is shaping up to be a popular upset pick in this one, taking some early money when the board opened, and advancing in a lot of bracket pools. I have a lot of respect for what the Rams accomplished this season, and a lot of metrics are very high on this team — particularly on the defensive end, where they rank 23rd in defensive efficiency.
VCU rolled through the Atlantic 10 this season, but hasn’t been playing its best basketball of late. The Rams are on a 1-4 ATS skid, including an outright loss earlier this month as a 9.5-point favorite. As a Rhody Ram, I’m an A-10 guy myself, but this certainly was not a good conference this season. VCU hasn’t been priced as an underdog since back in December, when it lost to New Mexico by seven points and a four-point dog. The Rams are 0-2 as an underdog this season, also losing to Nevada as a short 1.5-point dog. VCU just hasn’t seen much legit competition this season, even falling to Seton Hall as a seven-point favorite in its only crack at a Big East team.
Meanwhile, BYU has faced elite competition on a nightly basis in the Big 12. The Cougars turned the corner back on January 21 with a win at Colorado, finishing the season on a 13-3 run. Since then, they’ve arguably been a top-10 team in the country. BYU has won its last four games when priced as an underdog, and have won four of its last five games when favored by five or fewer points.
The Cougars rank 11th in offensive efficiency, and are frankly unlike anything VCU has gone up against. While this isn’t exactly a BYU home game, we can expect the crowd to be in their favor in Denver. Playing at elevation could also play into the Cougs’ favor in this one, especially when we factor in their depth. At a price short enough to play on the moneyline, BYU will be one of my top plays on the opening Thursday of the tournament.
March Madness Pick: BYU ML (-142) 3-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
