The PGA TOUR wraps up its Florida swing this week with the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort will be the host, and measures as a 7,352-yard par 71 with Poa Trivialis overseeded greens.
We have another full-field event on tap this week, with the top-65 and ties all making the 36-hole cut. Tommy Fleetwood is currently the betting favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook at 11/1, while Xander Schauffele, Sepp Straka, Justin Thomas and Tom Kim round out the top of the odds board.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Shane Lowry to win (+4000)
We are getting a massive discount on Lowry due to his afternoon tee time on Thursday. There is scheduled to be a significant wave advantage this week in favor of the AM/PM golfers, as the forecast calls for heavy winds later in the day on Thursday. Anyone who tees off in the afternoon, like Lowry, has seen their odds drop precipitously.
There comes a point, however, where this gets taken too far. Copperhead is an extremely difficult golf course regardless of conditions, and there are going to be plenty of golfers who struggle even if they have Thursday morning tee times. Lowry is also, of course, used to playing in difficult weather, as he grew up playing links golf in Ireland, where windy conditions are the norm.
If you simply look past the weather, Lowry checks every possible box this week. He’s coming into play red hot, having posted three top-11 finishes over his past five starts, all while ranking top-six in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained over the past 24 rounds.
Lowry put on an absolute clinic with his irons last week at TPC Sawgrass, gaining 7.8 strokes on approach, including 7.4 over the final three rounds. The Irishman has not played Copperhead that much in his career, but he did finish T12 here in his last appearance back in 2022, so it’s clear he can handle the course.
As we have seen plenty of times over the years, blindly trusting the weather forecast can lead to disastrous outcomes, so I am simply going to hope Lowry escapes the first round unscathed, and makes a big run over the final three rounds.
Lucas Glover to win (+6000)
Another afternoon Thursday tee time here, but I simply do not care, as this 60/1 number is firmly baking that in already. Glover went nuts last week at THE PLAYERS, gaining 2.3 or more strokes in each of the four major Strokes Gained categories, en route to a T3 finish. Strangely enough, that marked Glover’s fourth T3 finish across his past 14 starts dating back to the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.
During this run, Glover ranks second in this field in Total Strokes Gained, trailing only Justin Thomas in that timeframe. Another thing he has going for him this week is his familiarity with Copperhead, as he’s played this event nine times over the past 10 years, while posting four top-25 finishes in that stretch.
I firmly believe if Glover had a morning tee time this week he would be sitting at closer to 40/1 to win this event, so let’s hope the forecast is a bit off and take advantage of this elite number on a red-hot golfer.