Texas and Xavier aren’t flying to Dayton for a polite warm-up—they’re stampeding into a First Four showdown, ready to scrap for the 11-seed in the Midwest. The winner gets a shot at the storied and beloved first-round upset potential that comes with the it. Indeed—six-seed Illinois waits in the wings, and both the Longhorns and the Musketeers sprint the hardwood with every belief a second-weekend run, at the very least, is totally in play. Below, I get into my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness First Four college basketball game between Xavier and Texas.
Here’s how I intend to play this juicy Wednesday night marquee. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games (not just the First Four!) throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Texas vs. Xavier preview, prediction
Texas is more than capable of lighting up a scoreboard with their explosive offense, but their defense, often, exhibits the structural integrity of a handkerchief. They’ve been letting up 71.2 PPG (210th nationally), and that’s exactly where Xavier can strike. The Musketeers have the tools to get buckets—Zach Freemantle (18.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG over his last five) will muscle inside and punish any defensive lapses, while Dayvion McKnight (5.2 APG over his last five) keeps the offense moving and flowing with precision.
Texas needs to capitalize on their ability to force turnovers (15.1 per game in the SEC Tournament), but they’ve been their own worst enemy, coughing up 12.3 of their own (153rd in turnover margin). Against a team like Xavier, those mistakes won’t go unpunished. If Tre Johnson (21.3 PPG over his last five) gets hot, Texas has the firepower to outpace Xavier (more on that later). But it’ll come down to whether the Longhorns can put together a full 40-minute performance, something they’ve struggled to do.
Xavier, on the other hand, can’t afford to get careless with the ball. They’ve been averaging 13.5 turnovers per game (190th nationally), a vulnerability Texas will be more than happy to exploit. But they’re a beast on the boards, boasting a +4.7 rebound margin over their last five games (Texas is at +2.6). That’s where the Musketeers can grind out an advantage. Xavier also controls the paint, holding opponents to just 44.1% shooting in the lane (38th nationally). They’ll own the glass and work second-chance points to keep the pressure on Texas, whose defense is simply too porous to let that slip.
Late-game execution will be a big factor here—Xavier has been shooting 75.4% from the line over their last five (Texas at 73.1%)—a difference that could prove crucial when it comes to free points. The total is set at 149.5, and while both teams have the potential to explode offensively, the turnover-heavy play from both squads (Xavier 13.5 per game, Texas 12.3) leans this one toward the under. But only a a tipple of a lean, so be wary.
Xavier at Texas pick, best bet
For all their faults, the Longhorns have an offense that can transcend its infuriating defensive self-cannibalization. Texas is a gatling gun on the scoreboard, putting up 79.7 PPG over their last three games in the Big 12 Tournament; they simply outmanned and outgunned their opponents. Led, of course, by Johnson, who shot 48.5% from the field during that stretch. He also grabbed 5.3 RPG and dished out 4.1 APG, showing he can do it all when the lights are brightest. Texas’ ability to stretch the floor with 37.9% from deep keeps defenses guessing, making them a serious threat from anywhere on the court.
And, let’s be clear, with a +3.2 turnover margin in their last five games, the defense hasn’t exactly been getting worse. It just hasn’t elevated. Their ability to turn flubs into offense with these steals, however, could be a game-changer in this matchup. Not to mention, Arthur Kaluma (1.8 BPG over his last five games) has also been a dominant shot blocker, with his standout performance against Kansas on February 25, where he swatted five shots. He’s a skyscraper.
It’s a small number to take, but the Longhorns just recently showed us their ability to pull away late, outscoring opponents by +5.7 in second halves over their last five games (including a key win in the Big 12 Tournament against Baylor). That depth and second-half strength make Texas +3.5 the pick. They’ve got the firepower, enough defensive devilry, and a knack for finishing strong.
This one won’t be pretty—Xavier will keep it tight early. Longhorns should outlast them in the second half.
Best bet: Texas +3.5 (-115)
Tail the Longhorns to endure the fight and squeak out a win by four or more with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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