Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
Finding the right balance between safe picks and leverage plays is key when making your NCAA bracket picks, especially in larger pools. Sticking mostly with chalk can work in small contests, but in bigger pools (50-100 entries or more), differentiation becomes more important.
That’s why we used PoolGenius to identify two overrated Final Four picks based on public popularity and two under-the-radar teams as strategic pivots.
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Overrated Final Four Bracket Picks
The odds and public pick rates below come from PoolGenius, which aggregates data from multiple bracket platforms for accuracy.
Florida
Odds to Make Final Four: 49.4%
Public Pick Rate: 61.5%
Florida is a strong team, but their popularity makes them a neutral play rather than one that gives you an advantage. Picking Florida won’t necessarily hurt your bracket, but with over 60% of the public backing them, you’re not gaining any leverage.
So that’s to say, if you take the Gators, you’ll likely need to find differentiation elsewhere, especially in larger pools with 70-100 or more people. If you are in a contest even bigger than that (200-500+), you may need even more unique plays to separate from the field.
Michigan State
Odds to Make Final Four: 17.3%
Public Pick Rate: 29.7%
Michigan State is a capable team, but the public is much higher on them than their actual probability suggests. While they have the talent to make a run, nearly 30% of brackets have them in the Final Four despite only a 17.3% chance. That gap means you’re taking on additional risk without gaining an edge over the field.
Underrated Final Four Bracket Picks
These picks are leverage plays for larger contests with hundreds or even thousands of entries. In smaller pools, playing it safer is often the better approach, as getting this strategic isn’t as necessary.
Texas Tech
Odds to Make Final Four: 13.0%
Public Pick Rate: 7.8%
Texas Tech offers a major leverage opportunity, particularly in pools with 200+ entries. Their Final Four odds are nearly the same as No. 2 seed St. John’s, yet they’re being picked at a much lower rate. If St. John’s gets knocked out, Texas Tech becomes a strong contender in that region.
This is also a direct pivot off Florida, one of the most popular picks. In larger pools, this type of strategic move can create significant separation, giving you a chance to make up ground on the field.
Iowa State
Odds to Make Final Four: 12.2%
Public Pick Rate: 6.7%
Iowa State is another overlooked team with a path to the Final Four, particularly in a region where Auburn and Michigan State (one of the overrated teams) are getting more attention.
They share a lot of similarities with Texas Tech beyond just being in the same conference. Both have looked like top-five teams at times this season and have the ability to make a deep run if they put it all together. While there are some injury concerns, they still have the upside to outperform expectations.
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Above, we talked about how your bracket strategy depends on pool size and scoring—but how do you know exactly how much risk to take? Where do you find public pick rates to spot overvalued teams?
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EXPERT PICKS: NCAA Bracket Picks from PoolGenius
FREE ACCESS: Discounts for DK Network readers