The NBA is filled with young superstars, most hailing from outside the US. The top three young Americans are clear — Jayson Tatum, followed by Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards in some order. But is the fourth-most promising American prospect — with both the experience and the mettle to retain the Olympic gold medal when the Games come to Los Angeles in 2028 — the Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero?
On his good nights, he’s a six-foot-10 wrecking ball, reminiscent in physique and play-style to prime LeBron James. But when his shot isn’t falling, Banchero is capable of costing his team games. Overall, though, he’s had more good games than bad, averaging 25.1 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, even if his true shooting percentage is the 44th-worst of 203 qualified players.
Tonight, Banchero’s Magic will host another of the more promising young Americans in Houston Rockets wing Amen Thompson. The two teams will tip off at 7 p.m. ET at the Kia Center in central Florida.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Orlando (+114 Moneyline) is a slight underdog and the total is set for 208.5. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Banchero.
Best Paolo Banchero Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Paolo Banchero U26.5 Points (-120)
After two consecutive good-shooting games, Banchero converted just six of his 22 field goal attempts (including dismal three-for-14 accuracy inside the arc) as the Magic snapped the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 16-game winning streak on Monday. The 22-year-old’s shooting can vary widely from game to game, so there’s no rhyme or reason to his slumps, but if there’s ever a time it feels like an off-night is guaranteed, it’s tonight. Houston has the league’s fourth-best defensive rating this season and is more motivated than Orlando, being the leader in a tight four-team fight for the second seed in the Western Conference where two of the other three teams will play each other tonight. Over their current seven-game winning streak, the Rockets have posted the league’s third-best defense and its best net rating. It’s also the fact that he’ll likely be guarded heavily by Thompson, who has held opponents to just a 43.3% field goal percentage since January 1 and ranks 10th in defensive box plus-minus.
Paolo Banchero O1.5 Steals + Blocks (-140)
Unsurprisingly, during its seven-game win streak, Houston hasn’t struggled with much, allowing the fourth-fewest points, second-fewest rebounds, and fewest assists in the league. But when you roster somewhat inconsistent players like Jalen Green, Thompson, and Alperen Şengün, the ceiling is incredibly high and the floor is somewhat low. The Rockets have allowed only the 13th-fewest steals and the 10th-most blocks over the last seven games, virtually the only negative aspects of their performance over that span. Green is averaging — by a narrow margin — the highest turnover rate of his four-year career, and he’s also been the single most-blocked player in the league this season, getting rejected 92 times. Şengün’s ground-based game and modest frame for a center places him fifth in that category. Banchero has recorded at least two combined stocks in three of his past four games.
