March Madness is finally here! While the NCAA Tournament produces plenty of upsets, figuring out which underdog to back can be difficult. Here are some sleeper picks to go deep in the South region this March.
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South Region breakdown
Here are the odds to win the South region on DraftKings Sportsbook:
The South is headlined by #1 Auburn, this season’s overall number one seed. It’s been a terrific season for the Tigers, going 28-5 while playing in the SEC, America’s toughest conference. However, the program has lost three of its last four games. Right now, it appears that this juggernaut is at its most vulnerable.
Elsewhere in the region, #2 Michigan State hopes to win its second title under legendary head coach Tom Izzo. The Spartans are limited on offense, but they defend and rebound better than almost anyone. #3 Iowa State enters the tournament banged up, having lost star Keshon Gilbert (groin) for the season. Still, the Cyclones have enough playmakers to go far on this side of the bracket.
Compelling Round of 64 matchups include:
- #8 Louisville will take on #9 Creighton in a fascinating clash of styles. While the higher seed relies on a terrific group of guards, the lower-seeded Bluejays lean on superstar center Ryan Kalkbrenner. This one will be played in Lexington, Kentucky, making it a de-facto home game for the Cardinals.
- Following a Big Ten tournament title, #5 Michigan will look to keep its hot streak going. The reward for the Wolverines this March? A date with red-hot #12 UC San Diego. The Tritons have won their last 15 contests, college basketball’s longest active win streak.
- #6 Ole Miss struggled to end the season, losing two of its last three games. They’ll face an inconsistent squad on Friday in #11 North Carolina. The Tar Heels possess plenty of upside, but it’s never clear which version of this team will show up. Tuesday’s dominant win over San Diego State could be the boost UNC needs for a deep postseason run.
Michigan (+1900)
As previously mentioned, Michigan completed a terrific season with a Big Ten title. The Wolverines, who defeated Wisconsin 59-53 on Sunday, are built to dominate down low. Twin centers Vlad Goldin (16.7 PPG) and Danny Wolf (13.1 PPG) are the team’s leading scorers. Elsewhere, Tre Donaldson is a reliable third option at guard (11.6 PPG). Head coach Dusty May has a history of success this time of year, having led Florida Atlantic to the Final Four in 2023.
An opening round date with red-hot UC San Diego won’t be a walk in the park. However, the Tritons have one rotation member taller than 6’6. That should allow Goldin and Wolf to feast inside the paint. Assuming Michigan moves on, they’ll get to take on an offensively limited Texas A&M team before facing Auburn. Superstar big man Johni Broome could have trouble with Michigan’s size, making this a dangerous matchup for the Tigers. From there, anything is possible, including a rematch with in-state rival Michigan State in the Elite Eight. UM isn’t a perfect squad by any means, but a massive advantage at center could carry this team in March.
North Carolina (+3000)
At long last, North Carolina delivered on its sky-high potential with a blowout victory over San Diego State. Fans and analysts alike have derided UNC’s inclusion into this year’s bracket, dismissing their resume in a weak ACC. However, this wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen an underperforming roster turn things around in March. In fact, the Tar Heels did so just three years prior, reaching the National Championship game as an eight seed in 2022. If this group makes a deep run, expect plenty of production from senior guard RJ Davis (17.3 PPG).
North Carolina ranks 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. That level of scoring differs greatly from both #2 Michigan State and #3 Iowa State. As we’ve seen before, teams that play at a slower pace are more prone to being upset in March. It’s not ridiculous to envision the Heels catching fire from three-point range for two or three straight games. A major knock on UNC is its lack of big wins this season. However, they’ve played close games with elite programs such as Duke, Florida and Michigan State. At 300-to-one odds, this is a talented group worth backing for bettors.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
