Welcome to the Thursday night game everyone’ll be circling with that March Madness pink highlighter we all love. Because, indeed, there’s a story here. Louisville feels like a bit of an afterthought when it comes to seeding. Their outrage is proportionate; this squad has been firing on all cylinders since the start of the new year. They’re facing off in the first round against nine-seed Creighton, a team that packs plenty of picks-its-spots firepower, and a dangerous big man in Ryan Kalkbrenner. But we—the folks who’ve been paying attention, that is—know Louisville can run with anyone when they’re locked in. It’s the first eight/nine matchup of the tournament, and I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness first round college basketball game between Louisville and Creighton.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Louisville vs. Creighton preview, prediction
Louisville has been an absolute wrecking crew since January, and it all starts with Chucky Hepburn. The two-way guard has emerged as one of the best in the nation, averaging 16.5 PPG, 6.1 APG, and 1.9 steals over the last 10 games (shooting 45.3% from the field and 39.2% from three in that stretch). But it’s not just Hepburn. Terrence Edwards Jr. (12.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG over the last 10 games) and J’Vonne Hadley (13.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG during the same stretch) have taken on new roles as versatile forwards, providing crucial balance and scoring. Meanwhile, Reyne Smith’s three-point shooting has been a game-changer (37% from deep in conference play, hitting 2.5 threes per game), giving this offense the spacing it needs to thrive. Since the start of the new year, Louisville ranks 11th in the nation in offensive efficiency (1.171 points per possession), and their +6.1 rebound margin over the last five games has been crucial to their dominant run.
The Cards have shot 37% from three in ACC play and rank top-25 in both effective field goal percentage (55.6%) and assist-to-field goal ratio (1.37), all while playing that fast-paced, five-out offense that has been so tough to defend. Their offensive efficiency has been top-10 nationally since the new year, and it’s clear that they’re ready to make a splash.
Creighton, though, is a tough matchup in its own right. Ryan Kalkbrenner (17.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG) is the anchor, both offensively and defensively, and his 71.7% shooting inside the arc has given the Jays a serious edge. They play a high-efficiency brand of basketball, ranking sixth nationally in assists per field goal made and top-40 in adjusted offensive efficiency.
But for all their offensive prowess, Creighton has shown vulnerability. Their turnover rate of 18.3% is outside the top-250 nationally, and they’re shooting a lackluster 35.6% from three over their last 10 games. Creighton’s defense isn’t airtight either—despite being solid inside, they’ve struggled with defensive rebounding margin (-2.2) and giving up 1.4 points per possession to high-major offenses.
That’s exactly where Louisville can strike. The Cardinals’ plus-number rebounding margin in the last five games combined with their ability to stifle Creighton’s perimeter game gives them a real edge here.
Creighton vs. Louisville pick, best bet
Louisville -2.5 is your play. The Cardinals might not be flashy, but balance doesn’t need to be. It’s even-keeled. It spreads the floor with reticent deception. And Louisville’s got the defensive chops (ranking 28th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency) and balanced offense to make Creighton work for every shot—and that’ll be key against a hyper-efficient Blue Jays squad who ranks ninth in offensive efficiency (1.137 points per possession).
Louisville has held opponents to just 43.7% shooting from the field in their last 10 games (No. 35 in field goal percentage defense) and forces turnovers on 19.2% of opponent possessions (No. 72 in defensive turnover rate). That’s exactly what they need to stifle Creighton’s sharp attack. On the other end, the Cardinals shoot 37.1% from three (No. 49 nationally), while Creighton ranks just 158th in three-point defense (allowing 34.9%). This game could get scrappy, but Louisville’s got enough firepower, and with Hepburn leading the way, they’ll outlast the Jays and cover the spread.
And should the Cardinals pull off the win here? A bracket surge for Louisville could await if they take down Auburn. One final reminder that this is a team many feel was perilously underestimated by the committee.
Best bet: Louisville -2.5 (-110)
Tail the Cardinals to shove it to the seeding committee in the first round with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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