What if I told you that a 13-seed could make Purdue’s first-round fate as uncertain as a Braden Smith pass? Enter High Point, a team with a mouthwatering offensive game that can scorch defenses from every angle and catch bigger teams off-guard. The Panthers are built for fireworks, ranked top-25 in offensive efficiency, and their 82.3 PPG over the last five games is proof that they’re splashing at the right time. Danger zone for the Boilermakers. And, boy howdy, am I stoked to be here for my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness Round of 64 college basketball game between Texas Tech and UNC Wilmington.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games each round, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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High Point vs. Purdue preview, prediction
At the razor-end of the Panthers’ fangs are Kezza Giffa (18.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and D’Maurian Williams (16.1 PPG, 4.3 APG) are an explosive one-two punch on the perimeter, while Juslin Bodo Bodo (7.1 PPG) is the kind of guy who can make a Purdue frontcourt look flat-footed. They erased a 15-point deficit in the Big South title game and know how to make teams panic when the pace picks up.
But we all know High Point’s defense has been decidedly less-than-stellar. They rank outside the top-200 nationally in defensive efficiency, giving up 74.6 PPG over their last five games. But here’s the kicker: Purdue, despite their typical dominance, has some real holes, especially with Zach Edey no longer in the mix. Teams have exploited Purdue’s lack of rim protection, ranking 351st in effective field goal percentage defense over the last 10 games. Purdue has conceded 64.4% shooting on 2-pointers, and if High Point can get into the lane, they’ll feast.
Now, Purdue’s got offensive firepower, no doubt. Braden Smith (14.3 PPG, 5.7 APG) is the wizard who keeps things humming, and Fletcher Loyer (16.9 PPG, 40.2% from three) can shoot the lights out from beyond the arc. But what happens when the Boilers can’t rely on Edey to anchor the defense? Purdue is vulnerable inside. Over their last five, they’ve posted a -0.6 rebound margin (which, let’s be real, is not Purdue basketball) and haven’t exactly been an impenetrable wall at the rim. Teams like Auburn and Michigan have exposed their softness on the interior—exactly where High Point’s bigs can make a difference. It’s a matchup that screams for High Point to exploit Purdue’s weak side.
Purdue vs. High Point pick, best bet
What really matters here: High Point has the +3.5 rebounding margin over their last five games, compared to Purdue’s troubling -0.6. That’s a 4-point difference, and in a game like this, that matters. Also, High Point’s free throw percentage is sky-high at 77.3%, while Purdue struggles at 71.2%—not terrible, but in a close matchup, those extra free throws could be the difference.
If Purdue’s perimeter defense can’t keep Williams and Giffa from draining open looks, and if Bodo Bodo is living in the paint, this one could slip away faster than a dunk contest. With an offense that can outpace Purdue’s subpar defense and a rebounding edge that could create second-chance opportunities, High Point is going to turn heads.
The spread is Purdue -7.5, but that line’s tighter than Purdue’s already-brittle defense. This is a team on a mission, and they know how to create chaos. If High Point gets rolling, Purdue might be in for a long Thursday.
It’s nothing but High Point +7.5 (or outright upset on a funsies lean). The Panthers are ready to write the first chapter of their Cinderella story—and it’s going to be a wild one.
Best bet: High Point +7.5 (+100)
Tail High Point to send folks running around their rooms on Day 1 of R64 tomorrow with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Let’s get a little wild on this fun Day 1 ML: High Point outright win over Purdue (+295)
Ride the Panther lightning with me!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
