The madness of March has already arrived with Alabama State producing the first victory of the tournament by beating Saint Francis (PA) 70-68 on a thrilling last-second win. As a reward for their thrilling finish, they will face the top overall seed in the tournament- the Auburn Tigers.
In NCAA tournament history, 16 seeds are just 2-154 which comes out to a 1.28% winning percentage. This last happened in 2023 when Fairleigh Dickinson University took down Purdue.
Auburn enters this game as a -32.5-point favorite and -8000 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Alabama State holds +2200 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 149.5.
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Auburn Analysis
Auburn is firing on all cylinders entering the NCAA Tournament after a 28-5 regular season and going 15-3 in rigorous SEC play. Bruce Pearl’s squad ranks 10th in the country in scoring at 83.8 points per game. They rank 24th in field goal percentage, 47th in three-point percentage, 29th in assists, and 90th in rebounding. Auburn has one of the oldest rosters in all of college basketball and also ranks 101st in opponents’ points allowed and limits opponents to the seventh-worst three-point percentage.
SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome headlines the production with 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. Chad Baker-Mazara also averages 12.6 points per game, but can be a wild card for his on-court actions. Miles Kelly, Tahaad Pettiford, and Denver Jones each also average in double figures.
Alabama State Analysis
While they will have momentum on their side following the First Four victory, this matchup is a massive leap in the level of competition from what Alabama State is accustomed to. The SWAC Conference Tournament winners went 19-15 in the regular season and were a combined 0-6 against Quad 1 and 2 teams. They also went just 15-8 against Quad 4 teams, with their most notable win likely being over Omaha who rank 160th in the NET. They rank 357th in strength of schedule overall.
The Hornets rank 196th in scoring on the season and 191st in points allowed. CJ Hines and Amarr Knox headline the scoring, combining for 28.7 points and 4.9 assists per game. TJ Madlock is the only other player averaging double-figures with his 12.6 points per game on the season and no other player contributes more than 6.7 per game. If Alabama State is to have a chance, they are going to need to get hot from beyond the three-point arc. They attempt the 44th-most three-point attempts but connect at just 32.9% of these, which ranks 236th in the country.
The Pick: Auburn Over 91.5 Points
Auburn has rightfully earned the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and will now look to make a statement with a deep run. They get the job done on both sides of the ball but are capable of pushing the pace and making it an up-tempo matchup. Expect this to be the case in this game.
On the season, Auburn is averaging 83.8 points per game but has tallied over 91.5 points in nine games this season. In addition, Alabama State has given up over 91.5 points in four games this season, with this occurring against SMU, Akron, Nevada, and Tennessee-Martin.
Auburn is a completely different caliber of size and talent than anything Alabama State has faced this season. Three of Alabama State’s primary starters stand 6-foot-3 or smaller and expect this to be evident in this game. Auburn looks hungry and should be expected to put their foot on the gas right from the opening whistle. While I lean in favor of the Tigers covering the -32.5 spread, don’t expect there to be much resistance to their high-powered offense being slowed down and for Auburn to pour on the points in this game. Don’t expect Auburn to show any mercy and for them to record over 91.5 points for the 10th time this season.
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