March Madness, the greatest time of the year, is upon us. There’s still just under 24 hours to fill out your brackets, so time is of the essence. While correctly picking an early upset feels great, pools are determined on which team wins the National Championship. Throughout history, those have almost always been high-seeded teams (#1 through #4).
Still, this is the NCAA Tournament; no selection is without risk. Before penciling in your title winner, here are three high seeds that could slip up over the next two weeks.
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#1 Auburn (South Region)
It’s not often that the overall number one seed finds itself on this list. However, that’s the reality for 28-5 Auburn, a program that has lost three of its last four contests. The Tigers, despite their recent play, are still one of the nation’s deepest teams. Wooden Award contender Johni Broome is joined by high-end contributors such as center Dylan Cardwell and guards Chad Baker-Mazara and Miles Kelly.
On paper, these Tigers should be playing well into March. However, as we’ve seen before, entering the tournament on a cold streak can be detrimental. Auburn should roll in the Round of 64 against #16 Alabama State, and they should have an edge in the Round of 32 against either #8 Louisville or #9 Creighton. The Cardinals won’t be able to defend a big such as Broome, while the Bluejays could be overwhelmed at guard.
It’s after the first weekend where things could get tricky for War Eagle. Potential matchups include one of #4 Texas A&M or #5 Michigan. The Aggies recently beat the Tigers, while the Wolverines won the Big Ten on Sunday. Both teams are big and physical, with the kind of front courts that could make life difficult for Broome. A dangerous combination of underperformance and a tricky Sweet 16 opponent makes Auburn a difficult fade for most brackets.
#2 Alabama (East Region)
We’ll stay in the SEC, where another school from the Deep South could suffer an early defeat. Alabama proved plenty of pundits wrong last season, making their way to the first Final Four in program history. In fact, it was only the second time in over 20 years the school had gotten past the Sweet 16. Head coach Nate Oats prioritizes a fast-paced, exciting brand of basketball that leads to plenty of points. However, it’s also what could be the Crimson Tide’s undoing in March.
Alabama plays at the nation’s fastest tempo (74.8), per KenPom. However, for a group that loves to create chaos, the Tide force a low amount of mistakes from opponents. Their turnover rate of 13.5% is the 15th-worst mark in the nation. The team has lost five of its last nine contests, and could be without second-leading scorer Grant Nelson (knee). Even if the forward does return at some point during the tournament, he’s unlikely to be at 100%.
The first few rounds shouldn’t be too daunting for ‘Bama Following a presumptive win over #15 Robert Morris, the team will then take on either #7 Saint Mary’s or #10 Vanderbilt. Neither opponent is equipped to keep up in a potential shootout, even without Nelson playing. It’s after that where things get tricky. In the Sweet Sixteen, the Tide will almost definitely take on one of #3 Wisconsin, #6 BYU or #11 VCU. All three are quality teams on both ends of the floor entering March Madness on a high note. A banged up Alabama squad limping into the postseason should be very concerned about the second weekend.
#2 St. John’s (West Region)
Speaking of #2 seeds that dominate one side of the ball, let’s take a closer look at St. John’s. Unlike Alabama, the Red Storm have made it this far thanks to the nation’s top-ranked defense, per KenPom. Head coach Rick Pitino has opted not to have his team shoot from deep, ranking 288th in three-pointers attempted. That hasn’t impacted a triumphant campaign for the Johnnie’s, who won the Big East tournament and regular season title.
While SJU might be the story of the 2024-25 season, history suggests it might come to an end soon. Top seeds that aren’t very well-rounded are more prone to an early upset. While the Red Storm have stars like RJ Luis and Zuby Ejiofor, they lack much scoring depth. To make matters worse, they haven’t beaten a ranked opponent outside of the Big East.
With that being said, a small caveat is needed here. St. John’s does have a few factors in its favor. The most important is their head coach; Pitino is a two-time champion that has usually over-performed in March. In addition, the West region doesn’t appear too daunting outside of #1 Florida. Regardless, this isn’t one of the safer picks available among the top-ranked teams.
#1 Houston (Midwest Region)
We saved the biggest shock for last. Let’s get one thing clear about Houston: this is a terrific roster. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has one of the deepest groups in the country at his disposal. As always, the Cougars are an elite defensive unit. However, they aren’t slouches on the other end of the floor, ranking tenth in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. Experienced guards, including LJ Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan, carried this team to a Big 12 title.
So why is UH mentioned on this list? It isn’t really due to their region, which doesn’t have (many) threats. #2 Tennessee is similar to the Cougars, but are slightly worse at almost everything. #3 Kentucky was over-seeded, and #4 Purdue enters the tournament having lost six of its last nine games. The reason why Houston should worry you is actually #8 Gonzaga. Mark Few’s squad hasn’t looked amazing this season, but advanced metrics suggest they’ve underperformed. The Bulldogs are ranked ninth in adjusted efficiency margin according to KenPom. A talented roster led by guard Ryan Nembhard and big man Graham Ike can take down any opponent.
In the end, this pick is truly about a potential Round of 32 showdown with the Zags. By all accounts, this is a nightmare matchup for any #1 seed to face during the first weekend. The Bulldogs have reached the Sweet 16 in nine straight seasons and will hope to make it ten. If Houston manages to survive, the coast should be clear for another deep postseason run. Still, a safer title winner might make more sense this year.
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