The PGA TOUR’s four-week Florida Swing comes to an end this weekend as 156 of the world’s best players travel to Palm Harbor, Fla. to take on Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. Although this week’s field isn’t quite as prestigious as last weekend’s at THE PLAYERS Championship, the PGA TOUR’s flagship event, it’s still a fairly strong one, featuring three of the top 10 players in the world.
Compared to the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course last week, Innisbrook is relatively easy in its approaches to the green as well as its short game and putting difficulty. However, finding the short grass off the tee is paramount; by Data Golf’s analysis, it’s the hardest course off the tee of any non-major championship venue.
Here are my three favorite golfers to be in the Top 20 come Sunday afternoon, who all unsurprisingly rank highly off the tee:
Best Top-20 Parlay at The Valspar Championship
Sepp Straka Top 20 Finish
I backed the Austrian to finish in the top 20 last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, and he did just that, notching a T-14 for his third straight top-20 finish and seventh top-20 in nine starts this season. Whether Straka’s truly turned the corner in a Ryder Cup year — a nerve-wracking proposition for the Americans — or whether he’s simply experiencing a hot streak, I’m still backing him this week when he’s the fourth-best player in the field by the Official World Golf Ranking and has recorded a strong finish in every event in the Sunshine State so far. Straka ranks 51st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, but he had an excellent week of the tee at THE PLAYERS.
Byeong Hun An Top 20 Finish
By the PGA TOUR’s new Course Fit Score — which analyzes the most important factors from previous iterations of The Valspar Championship — An is a relatively good fit, scoring 48 out of 100, with a lower score representing a player better-suited to the course. An is an elite ball-striker, ranking 13th this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and he had his best performance of the season at a course with a similar profile, finishing in a tie for eighth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. Also, Innisbrook’s Par 5’s are more difficult than average, and An ranks a respectable 59th in Par 5 scoring average this season despite a difficult season overall.
Kurt Kitayama Top 20 Finish
Of all the players in the field, Kitayama (22) has the second-lowest Course Fit Score, making him an appealing bet to finish in the Top 20, especially at +185 odds. This season, Kitayama ranks 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 11th in driving distance, and given that the Copperhead Course stretches an intimidating 7,352 yards as just a Par-71, distance is imporant. Kitayama played in two of the four Florida Swing events, to mixed results; although he missed the cut at The Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches, he finished in a tie for 33rd last weekend at THE PLAYERS, including a 66 on Sunday, so he’s trending in the right direction.
