March delivers in every way, and this First Four battle for the 16-seed is no exception. Alabama State and Saint Francis (PA) aren’t household names, but with a ticket to face No. 1 overall seed Auburn on the line, they’ll throw everything they have at each other. These mid-major clashes can get unpredictable—especially with Alabama State’s defensive grit meeting Saint Francis’ high-variance shooting. The Hornets are favored by 4.5, but in a setting like this, no margin is safe. Let’s get into my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this March Madness First Four college basketball game between Alabama State and St. Francis (PA).
Here’s how I intend to play this win-and-get-a-free-date-with-Auburn game. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games (not just the First Four!) throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Alabama State vs. Saint Francis (PA) preview, prediction
Alabama State thrives on grit, and their defense is pure chaos for opponents. Over the last 10, they’ve held teams to just 60.9 points per game, making every possession feel like a battle. CJ Hines (14.4 PPG) can light it up when needed, but it’s their suffocating defense that steals the show. D’ante Bass provides a spark, but this team lives off its ability to force turnovers (12.4 per game). They’ll need to clean up their offense—they rank near the bottom of the SWAC in assists. A lack of fluid ball movement can stall them, and it’s something St. Francis will try to exploit. But if Alabama State can get after it defensively and stay solid on the glass (+2.9 rebound margin), they’ll control the game.
St. Francis (PA) is an offensive juggernaut. Riley Parker (15 PPG) and Jeremy Clayville (39% from 3) will shoot from anywhere, and when they’re on, they’re dangerous. But their weakness? Turnovers. They cough it up 12.2 times per game, and against a team like Alabama State, that’s a major issue. If they can’t take care of the ball, they’ll be handing the Hornets opportunities they can’t afford to give up. The Red Flash are also better at the line (74% vs. Alabama State’s 71%), which could keep them in it down the stretch if it gets tight.
Rebounding is where Alabama State will take control. They’ve been solid on the boards (+2.9 margin), while St. Francis struggles in that department, especially defensively. The Hornets will feast on second-chance opportunities, and that’s where they’ll grind out a win.
Saint Francis (PA) vs. Alabama State pick, best bet
This game boils down to one thing: Alabama State’s unyielding defensive fortress. The Hornets have held opponents to just 60.9 PPG over their last 10 (ranking 25th nationally), and they’re a turnover-forcing machine, averaging 12.4 steals per game (10th in the SWAC). St. Francis’s firecracker offense will be put to the test as they battle Alabama State’s stone-cold defensive assault. The Red Flash can score, sure—Parker and Jeremy Clayville can light it up with the best of them—but they’re prone to mistakes, coughing up 12.2 turnovers per game.
That will be their undoing here, especially against a team that capitalizes on mistakes. On the boards, Alabama State has the edge, with that +2.9 rebound margin over their last 10 (compared to St. Francis’s -1.1). The Hornets will crash the glass, get second-chance points, and wear St. Francis down. In fact, Alabama State has outscored opponents by +5.7 in second halves over their last five games, proving they know how to finish strong. Alabama State will clamp down on defense, force turnovers, and dominate the glass, pulling away in the second half to cover the -4.5 spread.
Best bet: Alabama State -4.5 (-105)
AUTHOR’S NOTE: As of noon ET on 3/18, the line on DraftKings Sportsbook has moved to Alabama State -3.5, which, as it would happen, we like even more. No additional analysis other than it seems folks think the Red Flash are more than their namesake in a pan. Per se.
Tail the Hornets to, you know, get the tournament buzz, buzz, buzzin’ with a cover in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
