The future of the Memphis Grizzlies hinges largely on the 100 members of the media who vote for end-of-season every year. If Jaren Jackson Jr. wins Defensive Player of the Year — he, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ Evan Mobley, and the Atlanta Hawks’ Dyson Daniels are the main contenders — he’ll be eligible for a five-year, $345 million supermax extension. He could also become supermax eligible by being named to one of the league’s three All-NBA teams. Otherwise, he’ll simply be eligible for a four-year, $146 million pact.
Jackson’s made an excellent case; he’s averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.7 blocks per game for a Grizzlies team in a three-way tie for the second seed in the Western Conference. He’s one of just six players — along with Daniels, Victor Wembanyama, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, and Walker Kessler — averaging at least three combined steals/blocks per game. Memphis will be without point guard Ja Morant tonight as it faces the Sacramento Kings at 10 p.m. ET.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Grizzlies are three-point underdogs and the total is set for 237. Below, I’ve highlighted my favorite prop bets centered around Block Panther.
Best Jaren Jackson Jr. Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaren Jackson Jr. 30+ Points + Assists (+115)
Memphis hasn’t been hindered too much when Morant hasn’t taken the court, in part because he hasn’t been on the court much. Morant has appeared in just 39% of the Grizzlies’ minutes this season, and in 1,980 minutes without him, Memphis is still scoring 119.2 points per 100 possessions, slightly more than it scores with him. Morant’s frequent absences have boosted Jackson’s scoring ceiling; on Sunday, with both Morant and Aldama sidelined, Jackson recorded an efficient 31 points, tied for his 10th-highest output of the season. Seven of his 12 30-point games this season have come with Morant out of action.
Despite four straight losses, the Kings are hanging on in the West’s Plan-In Tournament picture and look increasingly likely to make it, given the Phoenix Suns’ dysfunction. Since the All-Star break, Sacramento’s defense has been merely mediocre, as it’s allowed the 14th-fewest points in the league despite leading the league in defensive rebounding with Domantas Sabonis and Jonas Valančiūnas in the middle. Given the Kings’ dominance inside, I don’t expect a high ceiling from Jackson in terms of rebounds — he ranks just 54th in rebounding percentage this season, the second-worst of any qualified player who has played a plurality of his minutes at center — but opponents have actually shot 0.1 percentage points better than usual when defended by Sacramento players within 10 feet of the basket, a zone in which Jackson attempts 54.6% of his shots.
Jaren Jackson Jr. U1.5 Blocks (+100)
While the combination of Sabonis and Valančiūnas isn’t elite defensively, it does have lots of size — Sabonis is six-foot-10 and has a fairly high release, while Valančiūnas is six-foot-11 and attempts nearly all of his shots near the basket and rarely shoots unless he has at least two feet of separation from his defender. Unsurprisingly, with such a big and physical interior presence, the Kings have allowed just 3.5 blocks per game since the All-Star break, the third-lowest in the league. In addition to whichever big mans the middle, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are both known for their athleticism and agility, and both are blocked relatively infrequently.
To be fair, Jackson has recorded two or more blocks in five of his last six games, but three of those games came alongside Morant. Each of the four most frequently-used lineups that include Jackson but not Morant record blocks less frequently than their opponents do, while two of the four that include both record blocks more frequently. Part of it has to do with the fact that Jackson himself gets regularly stuffed, but it also provides evidence that Jackson’s ceiling as a shot-blocker is higher with Morant on the floor, perhaps in part because Morant is a worse perimeter defender than his backup, Scotty Pippen Jr.
