The Los Angeles Lakers are in the middle of a set of six games in three nights. The first two — a 126-106 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks and a 131-126 defeat to the Denver Nuggets — were rough, but the Lakers did pick up a 107-96 win over the Phoenix Suns last night. The set will conclude with a back-to-back against the Nuggets and Bucks on Wednesday and Thursday.
Luka Dončić sat during the second night of the first back-to-back, so it was unclear after the game last night whether or not he’d play in tonight’s 10:30 p.m. ET clash against the San Antonio Spurs. Thankfully for Los Angeles supporters, Dončić is expected to be active, although LeBron James remains out with his groin issue.
The Spurs have one of the league’s weakest rosters now with both Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox out for the season, so the Lakers might have been fine even without Dončić, but with him, they look set to pick up a much-needed win.
Los Angeles is a 9.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-410 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 230. Meanwhile, San Antonio is +320 on the Moneyline.
Luka Doncic to Record a Triple-Double (+205)
Here’s why Wembanyama was the clear favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year prior to suffering a season-ending injury: since he went down, San Antonio is giving up 123.6 points per 100 possessions, the worst in the league by more than one point per 100 possessions. On a count basis, the Spurs have given up the most points, fifth-most rebounds, and second-most assists in basketball, and they’ve also recorded the fifth-fewest blocks. With Charles Bassey also out and Zach Collins on the Chicago Bulls, the only traditional bigs on San Antonio’s current roster are Bismack Biyombo and Sandro Mamukelashvili, who have both graded as roughly-average defenders this year.
Meanwhile, since James went down, Dončić has posted a league-leading 37.8% usage rate, accounting for 36.6% of the Lakers’ points, 34.0% of their rebounds, and 37.7% of their assists, and across that span, he’s averaged an incredible 33.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 7.7 assists on 41-41-87 shooting splits. He recorded a triple-double in the team’s loss to the Brooklyn Nets last Monday before coming within two assists of one last night, and his supporting cast is getting healthier. Although James and Rui Hachimura remain out, Jaxson Hayes and Dorian Finney-Smith returned prior to last night’s game.
Stephon Castle O19.5 Points (-115)
Before the All-Star break, Rookie of the Year was one of the award races that carried the most intrigue, as Castle was a narrow favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies’ Jaylen Wells. But Wembanyama’s injury blew the Defensive Player of the Year race wide open while shutting down the Rookie of the Year quest. Since the All-Star break, Castle has averaged 16.6 points per game, and he’s now a starter since Fox opted for his season-ending procedure. He’s recorded 20 or more points in six of his last 10 games, leading the team with a 27.7% usage rate since the intermission.
Los Angeles has been an excellent defensive team in recent weeks, allowing the league’s fewest points, the 11th-fewest rebounds, and the ninth-fewest assists since the All-Star break. But unsurprisingly, since James’ injury, they’ve struggled a little bit more, tying for the 11th-most points and ninth-most rebounds, even though the Lakers have been defensively better without him for just the seventh time in his career. I’m not sure who’s going to stop Castle; of the Lakers’ guard rotation of Dončić, Austin Reaves, Dalton Knecht, and Gabe Vincent, Dončić, a man who was traded because of his lackluster effort on that side of the ball, is the best defender, per Basketball Reference’s defensive box plus-minus.
Austin Reaves 4+ Three-Pointers Made (+145)
It’s weird to talk about “beneficiaries” of a top-five all-time playmaker getting injured, but if anyone has benefited from his absence, it’s Reaves, who has genuinely demonstrated star potential with James sidelined. In three games with Dončić and no James, Reaves has averaged 24.3 points, 6.3 assists, and 3.0 made threes per game while shooting 44.2% from the field and 40.9% from beyond the arc. He has recorded four or more made threes in each of his last three games, although one of them came in a 37-point outburst without Dončić on Friday against Denver. Unless the game is uncompetitive, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t get enough shots to hit four threes again.
While Wembanyama is more known for his rim protection than his three-point defense, opponents shot 2.0 percentage points worse than usual when guarded by the Frenchman this season, so with more minutes given to worse defenders, it’s not a surprise that opponents have been pretty good against the Spurs since his injury. Since the All-Star break, San Antonio has allowed the eighth-most made threes on the seventh-highest percentage, ranking second-to-last in contested three-pointers per game. Across that span, it’s given up the 11th-most wide-open threes, a shot that Reaves has hit at a 39.1% clip this season.
Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app on Apple or Google!
