Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, whose expert bracket picks and tools have helped subscribers win over $2.5 million in prizes since 2017.
The NCAA Tournament is all about Cinderella stories, but which March Madness upsets happen most often? Is there a seed in particular that loves to steal the spotlight?
We looked back to 1985, when the field expanded to 64 teams, to find the answer—and it’s not what you might think.
First-Round March Madness Upset History
Here’s how often the lower-ranked seed has won in the first round since 1985:
- 16 beats 1: happens 1.3% of the time (2-154)
- 15 beats 2: happens 7.1% of the time (11-145)
- 14 beats 3: happens 14.7% of the time (23-133)
- 13 beats 4: happens 21.2% of the time (33-123)
- 12 beats 5: happens 35.3% of the time (55-101)
- 11 beats 6: happens 39.1% of the time (61-95)
- 10 beats 7: happens 38.7% of the time (60-95)
- 9 beats 8: happens 51.9% of the time (81-75)
Which Seed Produces the Most March Madness Upsets?
While it’s notable that the No. 9 seed wins more often than the No. 8 seed, these matchups are essentially coin flips, making it hard to call No. 9 a true underdog.
What stands out more is the No. 11 seed, which beats the No. 6 seed at a higher rate than any other lower seed matchup—even more often than the No. 10 over No. 7 and the widely hyped No. 12 over No. 5 upset that experts always tell you to circle.
Related: How to Make Smarter March Madness Bracket Picks & Win Your Pool
What About Overall NCAA Tournament Wins?
If we zoom out to overall wins by seed, the No. 11 seed stands out with 104 total wins—the most of any seed No. 9 through No. 16.
The No. 11 seed is also the lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four, accomplishing this feat six times, most recently with NC State in 2024.
What Does This Mean for Your NCAA Bracket?
Knowing where March Madness upsets tend to happen is helpful, but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. Every tournament is different; every No. 11 (and No. 6) seed is built differently.
A smarter bracket strategy is to compare public pick trends with advancement odds to find the best leverage spots. Then, factor in your pool size and scoring system to take calculated risks—maximizing upside without overcommitting to too many March Madness upsets.
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