NASCAR switches circuits for the fourth consecutive week. Will the sportsbook adjust or get lost in the dust? It’s Vegas. It’s the desert. There’s plenty of sand in the air and plenty of opportunities to beat the book. As always, trust the data but also trust your eyes. Here are the best bets for the NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas.
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Race Winner — Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas
Christopher Bell +700
Denny Hamlin says the fastest car only wins 30% of the time. Wins come down to speed, strategy, luck and execution. Christopher Bell is winning because he possesses all four. The No. 20 JGR Toyota is seeking its fourth consecutive victory—a remarkable streak. Bell has won at a superspeedway, a road course and a short track. Why not check the intermediate-track box?
Bell should have won at Las Vegas in the fall of 2024. He had the fastest car and led the most laps (155), but Joey Logano stretched his fuel, and Bell ran out of laps trying to retake the lead. That was Bell’s second runner-up finish in his last three races and his third top-five in the last four. Bell is fast again this weekend. He’s not atop the leaderboard, but an analysis of his lap-by-lap practice data reveals he managed tire fall-off better than anyone.
Ross Chastain +1000
Listen to the drivers. It’s Vegas. Some play it close to the vest, others lay their cards on the table. After topping every metric in practice, Chastain was incredibly confident when speaking to reporters—and he should be. Chastain has finished seventh or better in five of his last six Las Vegas races, with his worst finish being 12th. All those races were in the Gen-7 car. Trackhouse has the setup figured out. It all comes down to strategy, execution and a little Las Vegas luck.
Alex Bowman +1400
The top of the starting grid is being dismissed, but that could be a mistake. Any driver can win an intermediate-track race—it’s not 2018. The Gen-7 stock cars are true stock cars, they’re virtually identical. Look at the data: similar to last week, practice lap times are tight. Michael McDowell won the pole with a time of 28.883 seconds; Bubba Wallace will start 20th with a time of 29.035 seconds. That’s 20 positions separated by just over a tenth of a second. Speed is overrated—track position and pit stall selection could be decisive. Bowman is starting sixth. The Arizona native may not lead the most laps, but he’ll be in the mix at the end.
