Tipping off at 1:00 p.m. ET, VCU and George Mason will face off to be crowned the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Champions after sharing the regular-season crown. Both teams finished 15-3 in conference play this season, which led them to be considered co-champions, adding a little extra weight to this matchup.
VCU entered as the top seed due to its head-to-head record. The Rams took down George Mason 70-54 in the regular season matchup. This game remained close for the first half before VCU broke things open in the second, outscoring George Mason by 17 points and pushing the lead to as many as 20. With an NCAA Tournament bid at stake, George Mason will now look to get their revenge.
VCU enters this game as a -7.5-point favorite and -410 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. George Mason holds +320 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 127.5.
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VCU Analysis
The VCU Rams enter with a 27-6 overall record and have gone 15-3 in Conference Play. They went 2-1 against Quad 1 opponents and 5-4 in Quad 2 matchups. Most impressive, they have beaten Colorado State, Dayton, Loyola Chicago, Saint Josephs, and George Mason already this season. Their worst loss was at the hands of Seton Hall.
The Rams average 77.4 points per game, which ranks 84th in the country, and are 32nd in offensive rating. As a team, they collect the 20th-most offensive rebounds per game and are 78th in assists per game. They launch three-pointers at the 24th-highest rate, attempting 28.5 per game, but connect on just 33.4% of these perimeter attempts which ranks 214th.
Defensively, VCU has limited opponents to 62.4 points per game which is the ninth-best rate in the country. They rank fifth in the country in defensive rating, fifth in blocks per game, and are limiting opponents to just 38.9% shooting from the field which ranks eighth in the country. Their 115th-ranked strength of schedule is worth noting when giving these stats, but VCU can only beat who is in front of them and they have done a nice job of this.
Ryan Odom’s squad is led in scoring by Joseph Bamisile and Max Shulga. The pair of 6-foot-4 guards each average 15.0 points per game and add 5.1 and 6.0 rebounds per game. Phillip Russell and Zeb Jackson each also average over 10.0 points per game while Jack Clark also provides 9.4 points per game.
George Mason Analysis
The George Mason Patriots went 26-7 on the season overall and share the Atlantic 10 Title with their 15-3 conference record. They went 1-3 against Quad 1 opponents and 4-0 when facing Quad 2 teams. Most impressively, they have beat Dayton, St. Bonaventure, George Washington, Sait Josephs, and Saint Louis. Their worst loss was their lone Quad 4 loss coming at the hands of Central Michigan.
The offense is even more of a challenge for George Mason as they average 71.2 points per game which ranks 256th in the country. They rank 255th in assists per game, 98th in rebounds, and 284th in possessions per game. Despite shooting a respectable 45.9% from the floor and 35.2% from beyond the three-point arc as a team, they rank 358th in FGA per game and 323rd in 3PA per game.
Looking at the defense, there is far more reason for belief in George Mason. They are holding opponents to 63.2 points per game on the season which ranks 12th in the country. The Patriots rank 11th in defensive rating and hold opponents to just 37.9% from the floor and 30.1% shooting from beyond the three-point arc. These rank eighth and 17th in the country.
Jalen Haynes headlines the production for George Mason. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 14.1 points and 7.1 rebounds on the season. Darius Maddox is the only other player to average in double figures, adding 13.7 points and 3.0 rebounds per game. Brayden O’Connor, K.D. Johnson, and Woody Newton each also add over 7.0 points per game.
The Pick: Under 127.5 Points
This is a low total for a college basketball game but I still am not blinking. Both of these teams play defensive-minded brands of basketball and fatigue will be a factor with this being the third game in three days for both sides.
The total finished at 124 during the regular season matchup between these two teams even while VCU put up an impressive 47 points in the second half. George Mason is especially focused on keeping the game at a controlled pace with their 284th-ranked possessions per game and ranking 384th in field goal attempts per game.
They have shown an increased willingness to match opponents who push the pace as the season has progressed. But don’t expect this to be a huge part of VCU’s game plan today. VCU’s most recent win over Loyola Chicago finished 62-55 or 117 total points.
My lean is toward VCU getting the outright win but George Mason covering the +7.5-point spread. But I like the points much better in this matchup. Tired legs have been evident in the tournament matchups and will be on full display tonight. The Patriots are more locked into their slow style of play while it will be up to VCU to speed things up if this is to be a high-scoring affair. They failed to do so against Loyola Chicago and expect this to carry into today. Neither side is particularly advanced offensively and is limited in guys that can just flat-out go get a bucket. Expect this to be a bit of a rock fight and for neither team to crack 65 points with the score ultimately falling under the 127.5 total.
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