March is here, and major conference tournaments are coming to a close. Make sure you’re keeping your eyes on the DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits when doing your research, available for free on DK Network.
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Let’s breakdown a big one on Saturday night with the ACC Tournament Championship Game in Charlotte.
Louisville vs. Duke (8:30pm ET)
The Blue Devils and Cardinals barely survived late pushes from UNC and Clemson in the Saturday night semifinal games, both advancing on somewhat questionable calls/no-calls in the final seconds. But survive and advance is the name of the game at this point in the season, and Louisville and Duke have clawed their way to the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night.
The big news in this one is that Cooper Flagg will miss his second straight game with a sprained ankle, so Duke will be without its best player. Key reserve Maliq Brown will also be out yet again for this one with a shoulder injury. It looked like no Flagg, no problem for the Blue Devils on Friday, building a 24-point lead over the Tar Heels. But UNC dug in in the second half, and had a real chance to win the game late. Carolina displayed a terrific game plan over those final 20 minutes for Louisville to follow in this one — without Flagg, focusing in on Kon Knueppel with bigger, athletic defenders can slow Duke’s offense. Pushing the pace on offense can also run down a thinner Duke roster, and the Cardinals have the depth to do that.
Despite surviving both games so far, Duke is 0-2 ATS in this tournament. Louisville is priced as an underdog for the second day in a row, but it’s starting to feel like the Cardinals are one of the best teams that just isn’t getting enough credit. Louisville takes an 11-game winning streak into Saturday, and after upsetting Clemson, has now won four straight outright when priced as an underdog.
In fact, Louisville has lost just three times overall since December 8, which is when it dropped its ACC opener to this very Duke team. The Blue Devils should be running on fumes here, needing a second half comeback against Georgia Tech, and then fending off a furious Carolina comeback, all without two key players. It all sets up a nice spot for a statement game from Louisville.
Just going off the market, UNC closed a 6.5-point dog on Friday, so pricing a far superior Cardinals team at the same price seems disrespectful. I’ll take the points in what should be a terrific finale in the ACC.
College Basketball Pick: Louisville +6.5 (-110) 1.5-units
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
