Was I the only one hearing Gus Johnson’s voice in my dreams last night? It’s Championship Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Top-seeded St. John’s (-6.5), in a de-facto home game, takes on 2-seeded Creighton for the Big East Tournament crown. The Red Storm defeated the Bluejays 79-73 at the same venue in their only regular season meeting.
Both of these programs will look to end lengthy postseason droughts in this winner-take-all contest. St. John’s has not taken claim to the Big East Tourney throne since 2000 (not quite the same Big East), which is also the last time they’ve appeared in the championship altogether. In just his second season in charge, Rick Pitino is looking to win both the Big East regular and postseason title, something even the most optimistic Johnnies fan would refuse to believe 5 months ago. In opposition, Creighton has yet to win a title game in their 12 Big East seasons. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in said game, with all four losses coming under Head Coach Greg McDermott.
No need to set the stage any further. Let’s dive into this matchup plus how this game is priced to find a winner.
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(2) Creighton vs. (1) St. John’s (6:30pm ET)
First off, how did we get here? St. John’s (29-4, 18-2 in conference) has blown doors in their two tournament games so far (covering comfortably in both), having lost just one game since the new year. The Red Storm, a projected 2-seed in the Big Dance per Bracket Matrix, are a defensive juggernaut, sporting the #1 overall defensive efficiency in all of college basketball according to KenPom. Likely Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis Jr. (unanimous All-Big East 1st Team; 18 ppg) leads the way offensively, while two-way studs Zuby Ejiofor (1st Team; scored 33 points against Marquette in Semifinals) and Kadary Richmond (2nd Team) round out the Johnnies’ big 3. Rick Pitino’s squad plays a true throwback style: high pace, allergic to threes, attack the paint, crash the glass hard, force turnovers and protect the rim. It’s an old basketball head’s dream come true.
Creighton, on the other hand, has in many ways the exact opposite play style. The Bluejays (projected 9-seed) play at a slower pace, take a ton of threes (9th nationally with 49.2% of field goal attempts coming from 3) but don’t hit the offensive boards hard or force turnovers (only 3 teams in the country force less per KenPom). This formula has worked year after year for Coach McDermott, as Creighton (24-9, 15-5) sit a game away from Big East glory for the 5th time in 12 campaigns. A collection of perimeter players headlined by All-Big East 2nd Team PG Steven Ashworth compliment superstar, four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner to lead the ‘Jays. To be frank, Creighton is pretty lucky to be here. A borderline-miracle, late comeback was needed to tie, and eventually defeat, DePaul before ousting UConn in the semifinals.
This contrast in styles clearly favors the Johnnies, but enough to cover the 6.5-point spread? That’s the question I’m looking to answer.
The turnover and rebounding discrepancies should heavily lean in St. John’s favor on both ends, but how much will the Red Storm be able to score amid Kalkbrenner’s presence at the rim? St. John’s center, the aforementioned Ejiofor, is capable of getting Kalkbrenner into foul trouble (5.6 fouls drawn per 40 minutes, 100th nationally according to KenPom) especially when it’s likely Kalkbrenner is dealing with fatigue. That, plus constant rim pressure by Luis Jr. (10.9 2-point field goal attempts per game), Richmond and others could send the Creighton big man to the bench early. This would be optimal for Pitino’s offense, as driving lanes would suddenly become much more abundant. If even a handful of threes can fall, the Johnnies will be able to score more than enough.
Defensively, St. John’s has the size and foot speed to keep the Creighton total low. The Bluejays hardly get to the line (313th nationally in free throw attempts relative to field goal attempts) or generate second chance opportunities, two categories the Red Storm stopping unit is great at limiting. It really comes down to three-point variance on this end of the court; the ‘Jays are willing to heave from beyond the arc, and St. John’s allows just under 41% of field goals to be threes (KenPom). Yet I sense some tired legs with Creighton as indicated by a putrid second half shooting display against Connecticut (30.8% from the field) after shooting 75% in the first. A double overtime contest in the quarterfinals followed by 40 minutes against a Danny Hurley-coached team the following night will drain even the most well-conditioned squad.
Even with this spread moving 2-full points in St. John’s favor from open, I like the Johnnies to cover and bring home the Big East trophy.
The Pick: St. John’s -6.5 (-108)
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