We’ve doubted Colorado State all tournament, and they’ve made us look foolish. The Rams didn’t just beat Utah State—they dominated, proving they might just be the best team in the Mountain West. Now, with a title on the line, they face Boise State, a team they’ve already beaten twice. Maybe it’s time to stop underestimating them. With redemption in mind, let’s run down my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this semifinal college basketball game between Colorado State and Boise State in the Mountain West Championship tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this game which, technically, starts tomorrow. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Colorado State vs. Boise State preview, prediction
Colorado State has been nothing short of sensational, riding a nine-game winning streak that includes a dominant 83-72 victory over Utah State in the semifinals. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging 82.5 points over their last five games. Nique Clifford has been the catalyst, posting a double-double with 26 points and 11 rebounds against Utah State. His versatility makes him a matchup nightmare. The Rams’ efficiency is evident in their shooting percentages—59.5% from the field and a scorching 55.6% from beyond the arc in their last outing. However, their turnover margin has been a concern, sitting at -1.8 over the past five games, which could be problematic against Boise State’s pressure defense.
On the flip side, Boise State has been equally impressive, particularly with their 72-69 upset over top-seeded New Mexico. The Broncos’ defense has been their cornerstone, limiting opponents to 66 points per game this season. Tyson Degenhart has been a force, averaging 17.8 points and 6.1 rebounds per game. In the semifinal, he dropped 22 points, showcasing his ability to take over games. Boise State’s rebounding has been stellar, boasting a +3.5 margin over their last five games, which could exploit Colorado State’s occasional lapses on the boards. Their Achilles’ heel, however, has been inconsistent shooting from deep, hitting only 25.9% of their three-point attempts against New Mexico.
The season series tilts in favor of Colorado State, who swept Boise State with scores of 75-72 at home and 83-73 on the road. In both games, the Rams’ offense proved too potent for the Broncos’ defense, shooting over 50% from the field in each contest. Boise State struggled to contain Clifford, who averaged 20 points in those matchups. The Rams’ ability to stretch the floor and hit perimeter shots has been a decisive factor, forcing the Broncos to play catch-up.
Boise State at Colorado State pick, best bet
Given the trends, the over 137.5 is enticing. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, and their offensive efficiencies suggest a similar outcome. However, the smarter play appears to be on the spread. The Rams have been the more dynamic offensive team lately, ranking top-30 in effective field goal percentage over the last month (55.2%), and they enter this game with a confidence edge after taking down Boise twice. Their ability to execute in clutch moments, coupled with Boise State’s shooting inconsistencies, could be the difference-maker.
Colorado State +1 looks like the right side, and taking them on the Moneyline isn’t a bad move either. The Rams have the momentum, the firepower, and the confidence to seal the deal. And let’s hope I’m not just placing this bet to eat crow for underestimating them the last few days.
Best bet: Colorado State +1 (-115)
For the bravest among us: Colorado State ML (-105)
Show CSU some respect with me, finally, in the Mountain West title game tonight in the DKN Betting Group here!
