In the final matchup of the loaded slate of college basketball today, Grand Canyon University and Utah Valley face off in the WAC Conference Championship. With a ticket to the NCAA Tournament on the line, it is only right for the top two seeds to be squaring off.
Grand Canyon University will be looking to return to the big dance for the third straight season and fourth time in the past five years. In contrast, this would be the first time Utah Valley has ever qualified for the NCAA Tournament. They have put forth their most successful season in program history and enter with the top seed in the WAC tournament.
These teams squared off twice in the regular season and split the two matchups. In the first game, Utah Valley came out on top in a 72-64 victory in front of their home crowd. The home team took the victory in the second matchup as well with Grand Canyon University securing a convincing 75-57 win in which they jumped out to an early lead and never really looked back.
Grand Canyon University enters this game as a -4.5-point favorite and -205 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Utah Valley holds +170 odds on the Moneyline with the game total set at 142.5.
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Grand Canyon University Analysis
Just one year removed from entering the NCAA Tournament as a 12-seed and defeating Saint Mary’s in the opening round, Grand Canyon University has its sights set on making some noise again. They hold a 25-7 record on the season and are 13-3 in conference play. They played just one Quad 1 matchup on the season, losing to Georgia, and are 1-3 against Quad 2 opponents.
The Antelopes average 78.8 points per game which is the 68th-best scoring rate in the country. They get to the free-throw line at the seventh-best rate and are effective in transition. They struggle from the perimeter in shooting just 31.4% from beyond the three-point arc, the 312th-best rate in the country, and they attempt just 19.9 per game which ranks 297th.
Defensively, Grand Canyon has held opponents to 68.7 points per game which is the 75th-best rate in the league. They are 10th in the country in steals, 18th in blocks, and force turnovers at the 11th-best rate in the country. Opponents are also shooting just 40.8% from the floor against them, which ranks 33rd, and 31.2% from beyond the three-point arc, good for the 55th-best rate.
Grand Canyon is led by Tyon Grant-Foster who is averaging 14.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. He has had a unique pathway with his college career interrupted by collapsing in his first game at DePaul. He was eventually cleared to return to play after a long process confirming his health, and he has begun to find his stride once again in a new location. The Antelopes also added TCU transfer JaKobe Coles, who is averaging 14.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists while leading the conference in effective field goal percentage. Rayshon Harrison and Duke Brennan each also score in the double-figures.
Utah Valley Analysis
In their 21st year as a program, this is the most successful season Utah Valley has produced. They hold a record of 25-7 on the season and went 15-1 in conference play, with their lone conference loss being to this Grand Canyon University team. They did not play a single Quad 1 matchup this season and went 0-4 against Quad 2 opponents.
The Wolverines average 76.0 points per game which ranks 116th in the country. They rank 42nd in the country in rebounds and shoot 47.0% from the field which is the the 62nd-best rate. Utah Valley also does the majority of their damage inside the three-point arc. They attempt just 17.9 three-pointers per game which ranks 345th in the country.
Defensively, they hold opponents to 68.7 points per game which ranks 51st across college basketball. They block shots at the fourth-best rate and hold opponents to 41.0% shooting which is the 46th-best rate in the country.
Dominick Nelson headlines the production with 14.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. Tanner Toolson and Carter Welling each also add 12.7 and 12.8 points per game. Trevan Leonhardt leads the conference in assists, averaging 5.7 points and 5.2 dimes while being one of the team’s best three-point shooters at 38.7%.
The Pick: Grand Canyon -4.5
This season should be viewed as a massive success for Utah Valley regardless of the results in this game. But, they feel a bit early in their path to make any sort of noise in the NCAA Tournament. They have done a great job taking care of business by beating the teams they should beat, but when measuring up to the better teams in college basketball, the Wolverines fall a bit short.
Grand Canyon University has its flaws as well but they are more battle-tested and return 64.2% of the minutes and 68.1% of the scoring production from last year’s team. Expect their ability to generate turnovers to prove problematic in this matchup and for the Antelopes to control the pace of play. Neither of these teams can light the world on fire offensively, and defense may very well decide this game.
Expect a focused effort from Grand Canyon tonight and for them to control this game in the same way they did in the second regular season matchup. They have won their first two tournament games by a combined 32 points and are well aware of the stakes of this game. Count on Tyon Grant-Foster to set the tone on both sides of the floor and lead this Grand Canyon team to a victory. They have had some ups and downs on the year but are a caliber of talent above Utah Valley, so expect this to be the difference tonight.
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