VCU and St. Bonaventure meet in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, each fighting to keep their tournament hopes alive. One team thrives on defensive pressure, the other on grinding opponents down—something’s got to give. For the first tip of a full slate of Thursday college tournament hoops, DKN has you covered. Have a sip of that coffee and enjoy my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between VCU and St. Bonaventure in the A-10 tournament this morning.
Here’s how I intend to play this ACC sunrise game. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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VCU vs. St. Bonaventure preview, prediction
One team has spent the season proving itself as the conference’s best while the other has spent it defying expectations. The Rams, co-regular-season champions at 25-6, have been the class of the league behind the play of Max Shulga, the A-10 Player of the Year. St. Bonaventure, on the other hand, wasn’t even supposed to be here—not if you trusted the preseason poll that had them finishing 10th. But Mark Schmidt’s teams have a history of overperforming, and the Bonnies are right where they want to be: underestimated, fighting for their tournament lives, and looking to pull an upset.
Battle of grit
The Rams have built their success on defensive intensity and efficiency, ranking top three in the A-10 in opponent field goal percentage and turnover margin. They’re holding teams to just 40.8% shooting this season, a mark that’s tightened even further in the last five games, where opponents have hit only 38.9%. Shulga has been the offensive engine, averaging 16.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists, but it’s the team’s rebounding dominance—+5.2 on the glass over their last five games—that has been the biggest factor in their control of games. If they get extra possessions off the boards and keep the game played at their tempo, they have every reason to believe they can pull away.
St. Bonaventure has no intention of letting that happen. The Bonnies have been one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the A-10 all season, and their ability to limit second-chance points is critical here. They’ve also been forcing more turnovers lately, averaging 14.2 takeaways per game in their last five, a noticeable uptick from their season average of 12.7. Chad Venning has been the anchor inside, posting 13.9 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, he gives the Bonnies a much-needed counterpunch against VCU’s size. The issue? This offense has been hit-or-miss, and when the shots aren’t falling, the Bonnies have trouble keeping pace.
VCU’s vice grip
The fulcrum of this game is whether St. Bonaventure can break VCU’s defensive stranglehold. The Rams have been smothering opponents early—over their last five games, they’re allowing just 26.8 first-half points—and if the Bonnies get stuck in the mud offensively, this could be over before halftime. That’s the biggest concern for the underdog. However, there’s something to be said about tournament basketball bringing out the best in teams that aren’t supposed to be here, and with Schmidt on the sideline, there’s always the possibility of the Bonnies hanging around longer than expected.
St. Bonaventure at VCU pick, best bet
Betting trends lean toward VCU, but not overwhelmingly. The Rams are 6-3 against the spread in their last nine, though a couple of those covers were by the slimmest of margins. The Bonnies have quietly covered four of their last five, showing their ability to play above market expectations. And looking at the wider conference tournament picture, A-10 games have leaned toward lower scores and closer games than projected—something that favors the underdog.
There’s no question VCU is the more complete team, and if they control the glass and dictate tempo, this could get away from St. Bonaventure quickly. But tournament basketball tends to tighten games up, and the Bonnies’ defensive improvements in recent weeks make them a tough out. VCU is in position to win, but covering the number? That’s less certain. St. Bonaventure has made a season out of proving people wrong, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they found a way to keep this one within reach.
Best bet: St. Bonaventure +10.5 (-102)
Tail the Bonnies to cover the sunrise game in the A-10 quarterfinal against VCU with me in the DKN betting group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
