Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or micro-edges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Pascal Siakam to have a 50% chance to play today on the road at Philadelphia. Siakam has started and played every game this year for Indiana; his absence would open up substantial opportunities for his fellow Pacers teammates versus the tanking Sixers.
On the year, Siakam averages 1.12 DraftKings Points Per Minute on a 24.2% usage rate, 12.2% rebound rate, and 15.2% assist rate. If he were to play tonight, Unabated NBA would project Siakam for 20.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. While that’s hardly a slate-breaking projection for DraftKings tournaments, it could make him a compelling lower-owned play given Indiana’s lofty 122.3 implied point total.
If Siakam sits, he would open up a lot of potential minutes as well as increased opportunity for many of his teammates. Tyrese Haliburton stands out in particular with a 1.3 DraftKings Point Per Minute average in court time this year without Siakam — his usage rate increases from 21.5% to 23.8% and his assist rate goes from 36.9% to 41.3%. Here’s how Unabated NBA projects the rest of Siakam’s teammates if he misses tonight’s game:
- Tyrese Haliburton projects for 19.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 9.3 assists (18.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 9.1 assists if Siakam plays)
- Myles Turner projects for 17.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists (15.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists if Siakam plays)
- Bennedict Mathurin projects for 15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists (14.2 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.6 assists if Siakam plays)
- Andrew Nembhard projects for 11.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists (10.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists if Siakam plays)
- Obi Toppin projects for 13 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.9 assists (8.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists if Siakam plays)
If Siakam is unavailable to play, Unabated’s bet simulation tools would declare the best prop bet tonight to be Andrew Nembhard’s over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook; there’s 22.1% Expected Value on Nembhard’s current line at -125 odds.
With Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Joel Embiid out as well as Q tags for key players like Kelly Oubre and Quentin Grimes, the matchup versus the tanking Sixers is as soft as it can possibly be. Pacers-76ers tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET, so you’ll know everything you need to know about Siakam’s injury status before the slate starts. If Siakam is out, prepare to get some exposure to the Pacers in DraftKings tournaments and prop bets.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
