The LA Clippers are in dire straits. Before the All-Star break, LA had largely hovered between the fourth and sixth seeds in the Western Conference, buoyed by a resurgent season from James Harden, rapid and unexpected improvements from Ivica Zubac and Norman Powell, and the injury return of Kawhi Leonard. But since the intermission, Powell has been sidelined by an injury that will cost him a chance at the Most Improved Player award and the Clippers have posted just a 5-7 record and a minus-1.5 net rating.
The Atlanta Hawks are in a similar situation; they lost wing Jalen Johnson near the end of January and are solidly in the Play-In Tournament picture but have little hope of winning a first-round playoff series. Trae Young has been fantastic and first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher has shown some flashes, at least.
LA has more to play for, since they’re only two games out of the West’s top six, as compared to Atlanta’s 4.5-game margin, but both teams will have plenty on the line when they face off in the Georgia capital at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Clippers are five-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-198 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 233.5. Meanwhile, the Hawks are +164 on the Moneyline.
James Harden O36.5 Points + Assists (-110)
In a far cry from his days coaching the Utah Jazz, who played at a league-average pace and had an elite defense, Quin Snyder’s Atlanta squad likes to play a run-and-gun style, operating at the league’s second-fastest tempo and playing just average defense. This season, the Hawks have the second-fastest pace and 14th-worst defensive rating, although that defense has slipped to the 11th-worst since Johnson’s season-ending injury on January 23 while maintaining the league’s fastest pace. With Johnson — an above-average defender — out of the equation, Atlanta has given up the fifth-most points and ninth-most assists per game.
Harden, too, has taken on a bigger offensive role since Powell’s injury. Although he was always the primary ball-handler, his usage increased from 79.7 touches per game prior to the All-Star break to 94.4 thereafter. His averages have also increased from 13.8 potential assists to 16.0, and 30.1 combined points + assists to 35.2. LA has understandably struggled since losing its leading scorer, but it hasn’t been Harden’s fault; he’s thrived in Powell’s absence, becoming even more of “the system” than he already was. The Clippers will need everything they can get from their system if they want to beat a Hawks team that has suddenly won four straight games.
Dyson Daniels 4+ Steals (+185)
Now that Powell is ineligible to win Most Improved Player, my hypothetical vote would go to the Great Barrier Thief, who’s been a revelation in his first season in Atlanta. He was largely a throw-in in the deal that sent Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans, but he’s increased his scoring average from 5.8 to 14.1 points per game and his three-point shooting percentage from 31.1% to 34.9%. More critically, he’s leading the league in steals and deflections by a wide margin, and he’s projected to become the first player since Alvin Robertson in 1990-91 to average three steals per game across a full season.
Tonight’s game is a clash between two of the most turnover-prone point guards in the league. Since Johnson’s injury, Young has averaged an ugly 5.4 turnovers per contest, while Harden has given it away 4.7 times per game since Powell went down. Since Kris Dunn isn’t much of an offensive threat, Snyder will probably put Daniels predominantly on Harden, which spells disaster for LA. But in addition to Harden, Leonard is averaging the second-highest turnover percentage of his 13-year career. In the teams’ previous matchup, Daniels recorded three steals but played fewer than 30 minutes in a blowout Clippers victory.
Ivica Zubac 14+ Rebounds (+110)
After eight seasons of slow but steady improvement to open his NBA career, the Croatian big has been a master on the boards this season. Zubac is averaging double-digit rebounds for the first time, ranking fourth in the league in that category with 12.5 per game. He also ranks sixth in the league in total rebounding percentage, and is one of just four players with multiple 20-point, 20-rebound performances. Zubac is another fringe contender for the Most Improved Player award and has been the 32nd-best player in the league this season by Basketball Reference’s Value over Replacement Player metric.
The Hawks have actually improved on the boards since the All-Star break; they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest rebounds per game in the NBA, and starting center Onyeka Okongwu has recorded four double-doubles in his last seven games. But even after he entered the starting lineup on January 20, he’s averaged just 30.0 minutes per game, and in the minutes that he sits, Atlanta will be without Clint Capela, who would rank above Zubac on the official leaderboard if he had played enough possessions to qualify. Over a nine-game stretch without Capela between January 28 and February 12, the Hawks ranked just 21st in defensive rebounds allowed, and Zubac ranks fourth in defensive rebounding percentage this season. Atlanta’s third-string big, Dominick Barlow, isn’t much of a threat on the boards, with a season high of just four rebounds.
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