While college basketball has stolen the spotlight with the NCAA Tournament on the horizon, there is still plenty of NBA action continuing on the hardwood. A full 10-game slate will take place Friday night.
Starting at 7 p.m. ET, the Miami Heat will host the Boston Celtics while the Philadelphia 76ers take on the Indiana Pacers. A half-hour later, the Los Angeles Clippers will play the Atlanta Hawks.
Four games will be tipping off at 8 p.m. ET. This includes the Rockets vs. Mavericks, Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies, Magic vs. Timberwolves and Spurs vs. Hornets. At 9:30 p.m. ET, an intriguing Western Conference battle will take place between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers. At the same time, the Raptors will play the Jazz. The final matchup of the night, the Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings, will tip off at 10 p.m. ET.
With plenty of NBA action ahead, here are my favorite prop bets for Friday’s slate.
Kelly Oubre Under 16.5 Points (-115)
The Philadelphia 76ers have waived the white Flagg (pun intended) on the season and have begun their quest to maximize the odds of keeping their top-six protected draft pick. Joel Embiid has been shut down for the remainder of the season and reports yesterday indicated Paul George seems to be heading down the same path. There are only six fully healthy players on the Sixers roster out of their 15 full-time NBA players and three two-way options. Kelly Oubre Jr. does not crack this list as he is listed as questionable with a knee injury, but it should be noted he was questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Raptors and ended up playing a reduced role. Expect the same tonight.
Oubre is averaging 15.1 points per game and has been held under 16.5 points in 39 of the 60 games he has played. He saw his role grow in the offense with injuries taking a toll on the entire Sixers roster. He tallied over 16.5 points in five straight games from Feb. 24 to March 6. The outlook for the Sixers changed since this point as reality set in for the organization. Oubre was limited to six points in 19:35 of gameplay against the Jazz and 13 points most recently against the Raptors.
Expect his opportunity to remain limited tonight as the Sixers prioritize playing their young players. Oubre deserves credit for his continued professional approach to the season, but Philadelphia is well aware of what the 10-year veteran brings to the table. Take advantage of the standard line being set at 16.5, and feel confident in Oubre being held to under 16.5 points for the third straight night and 40th time this season.
James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (-115)
The Los Angeles Clippers and Atlanta Hawks will square off tonight in what will be a battle between two of the best playmakers in the NBA. Trae Young leads the NBA in assists with 11.5 per game, but I am backing James Harden to record over 9.5 assists tonight. Harden ranks fifth in the NBA in assists with 8.7 per game.
While Harden has been forced to play in attack mode for a large part of this season, he is at his best as a playmaker at this stage of his career. He is passing the ball at an extremely high level and has tallied 39 assists across his past three games. This includes 17 assists against the Pelicans on Tuesday. Overall, Harden has recorded over 8.5 assists in 32 of the 63 games he has played. He also tallied 15 assists in the previous matchup with the Hawks this season.
Norman Powell remains out for this matchup but Kawhi Leonard is set to return to the floor tonight. Dyson Daniels is a terrific defender, but expect Harden to hunt Young on switches whenever he has a chance. Harden is playing 38.9 minutes per game this month, up from the 35.1 minutes on the season, and the Clippers offense is performing at a high level. Harden is at the core of all of this. Look for the two-time assist champion to be at the heart of the production for the Clippers again tonight and record over 8.5 assists for the fourth straight game and the 33rd time this season.
Nikola Jokic Over 13.5 Rebounds (+105)
The Los Angeles Lakers will take on the Denver Nuggets tonight with their lack of production at the big man position continuing to be evident. LeBron James remains out with his groin injury and Jaxson Hayes is set to miss his fourth straight game. Alex Len will be the only true center on the Lakers’ roster and has been wildly underwhelming in his first six games. Len played 19:29 of game action last night against the Bucks and only pulled in three rebounds. The Bucks out-rebounded the Lakers 48-38 last night.
Enter Nikola Jokic, who remains one of the best rebounders in basketball. The three-time MVP is third in the league in rebounding, averaging 12.9 boards per contest. This output has increased to 14.8 rebounds in March, including 21 rebounds last week against the Suns. Jokic has recorded over 13.5 rebounds in 29 of the 60 games this season. He finished with 13 rebounds in both previous matchups with the Lakers although one of these matchups was when Anthony Davis was still on the roster.
The Lakers rank 25th in the NBA in total rebounds and tired legs will be a factor on the second night of a back-to-back. Expect Jokic to impose himself in this game and for there to be no full answer for his interior ability. Jokic has recorded over 13.5 rebounds in six of his past eight games, so look for him to continue this tonight and reach this number for the 30th time this season.
Zach LaVine Over 21.5 Points (-105)
The Sacramento Kings simply need to get more production from Zach LaVine. The prized trade deadline acquisition has been too passive since joining his new team. Just last night, he was held to 14 points against the Warriors in which he attempted just six total shots. While Jimmy Butler deserves some credit for limiting his action, Lavine was too passive in his approach and finished with a team-worst -34.
LaVine is averaging 23.7 points per game on 16.6 field goal attempts this season. He has recorded over 21.5 points in 35 of the 58 games he has played. Since joining the Kings, LaVine is averaging 22.8 points per game and has recorded over 21.5 points in nine of the 16 games. He had back-to-back 30+ point performances before being held to 16 total shot attempts in the past two games.
Sacramento will take on the Phoenix Suns, who continue to have one of the most concerning outlooks in the league. Defense is a huge part of these issues as they rank 23rd in opponents’ points per game, 16th in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 19th in opponents’ three-point percentage. This will be the first time LaVine plays the Suns this season. Expect LaVine to take advantage of the Suns’ defensive concerns tonight. Look for him to be far more aggressive in this matchup and record over 21.5 points as he provides the scoring production he was brought in for.
