The Big Ten tournament continues tonight when Purdue takes on Michigan. Both teams enter Friday on a cold streak; the Boilermakers have lost five of their last seven games. On the other side, the Wolverines have dropped three straight contests. While these squads are NCAA Tournament locks, this matchup could determine where each is seeded on Selection Sunday.
Purdue enters this contest as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 147.5 points. Below is my college basketball pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s massive Big Ten showdown.
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Michigan vs. Purdue (9:00 PM EST)
Purdue will hope to defend their Big Ten title, albeit with a new-look roster. Head coach Matt Painter won’t have the luxury of playing Zach Edey, last season’s Wooden Award winner. Still, the Boilermakers have gotten plenty of production down low thanks to Trey Kaufman-Renn. The junior has led the team in points (20.1 PPG) and rebounds (6.2 RPG). Elsewhere, guards Braden Smith (16.2 PPG) and Fletcher Loyer (14.1 PPG) provide plenty of experience in the back court.
For Michigan, head coach Dusty May has done a remarkable job during his first season in Ann Arbor. Much like Purdue, the Wolverines are built to dominate inside the paint. Big men Vlad Goldin (16.7 PPG) and Danny Wolf (12.9 PPG) have torched most Big Ten defenses. The guard trio of Tre Donaldson (11.5 PPG), Nimari Burnett (9.9 PPG) and Roddy Gayle (9.6 PPG) have kept the offense balanced.
The last time these two met, on February 11th, Michigan eked out a 75-73 victory. That wasn’t the case on January 24th, when Purdue earned a blowout 91-64 win. This is a battle of opposites: the Boilermakers rank eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Wolverines are 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Which game better represents this matchup: January 24th’s blowout or February 11th’s nail-biter? The answer lies somewhere in the middle. When these teams last met, Michigan shot 26 free throws to Purdue’s eight, which proved to be the difference. A blowout feels unlikely, but a more even distribution on foul calls should favor the more talented roster. The Wolverines have allowed an average of 81 points per game over their last three outings. An elite Boilermakers offense should take advantage of a struggling defense tonight.
College Basketball Pick: Purdue -2.5 (1 Unit)
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