Memphis and Wichita State meet in the AAC Tournament quarterfinals, a matchup that pits the Tigers’ up-tempo offense against a Shockers squad that prefers to slow things down. Memphis has been rolling, winning five straight and lighting up scoreboards in the process. Looks to be a barnburner battle early here on a Friday afternoon, and I’ve got my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between Memphis and Wichita State in the AACC today.
Here’s how I intend to play my first champ week AACC game. Wish us luck! I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Memphis vs. Wichita State preview, prediction
Wichita State, fresh off a gritty 73-68 win over South Florida, has relied on physicality and defense to keep games competitive. The challenge for them here? Finding a way to withstand Memphis’s scoring runs without getting buried early.
The Tigers bring one of the most explosive offenses in the conference, putting up 80.2 points per game on an efficient 47.7% from the field and 38.8% from three. That firepower starts with PJ Haggerty, who’s been a relentless scorer, averaging 21.2 points and 5.5 rebounds while thriving in transition. Tyrese Hunter has stepped up as well, posting 14.1 points per game and coming off a standout 22-point, five-assist performance in their win over Tulane. Memphis doesn’t just score—they make teams uncomfortable. Their ability to push the tempo and force mismatches leaves opponents scrambling, and when they’re clicking from deep, they become nearly impossible to slow down.
Wichita State, however, has shown flashes of resilience. They’re averaging 73.7 points per game, but perimeter shooting remains a glaring issue, sitting at just 29.5% from beyond the arc. Xavier Bell leads the way with 15.1 points per game, while Corey Washington has anchored the interior with 13.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. The key for the Shockers? Taking care of the ball. They’ve coughed it up 14.2 times per game over their last five, a dangerous trend against a Memphis team that forces 7.8 steals per game and thrives on turning turnovers into fast-break points. If Wichita State is careless, this game could unravel in a hurry.
Wichita State at Memphis pick, best bet
Rebounding might be the Shockers’ best chance to keep things interesting. Over their last five outings, they’ve posted a +3.8 rebounding margin, creating second-chance opportunities that have kept them in games. If they can dominate the glass and slow things down, they might force Memphis into a more uncomfortable, half-court-heavy game. But that’s easier said than done against a Tigers squad that thrives in transition and feasts on mistakes.
With Memphis favored by 9.5, oddsmakers are expecting a comfortable Tigers win, but Wichita State’s ability to scrap and slow the pace could keep things closer than expected. If Memphis gets out in front early and forces turnovers, this could turn into a runaway. But if the Shockers manage to limit mistakes and control the boards, they’ve got a shot to keep it inside the number.
The lean—and it really is just that—remains Memphis -9.5, but with caution—if they don’t build separation in the first half, this one could tighten late.
But wait! Let’s look at the total—
As for the total, 146.5 is an interesting number. Memphis games tend to be played at a high tempo, and they’ve hit the over in four of their last five. Meanwhile, Wichita State plays at a much slower pace but has also seen four of its last six go over this number. The real key is whether Memphis gets out to a fast start—if they build an early lead, Wichita State will be forced to push the pace more than they want to. If they hang around and control tempo, this one trends under.
If I had to pick between Memphis -9.5 or the total, I feel better about the o146.5. The Tigers have been red-hot offensively, and even if Wichita State slows the game down, Memphis is efficient enough to put up points regardless. Plus, if the Shockers are playing from behind, late fouls could push the number over. If you’re hesitant on the spread, the total might be the better play.
Best bet: Memphis vs. Wichita State o146.5 total points (-112)
Lean: Memphis -9.5 (-105)
Tail this game to light up the scoreboard and cash the over with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
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