Maybe you have, but Florida hasn’t forgotten what happened in January. Missouri stole a one-point win on the back of red-hot shooting, but if the Tigers can’t replicate that, the Gators have every advantage—especially now that their frontcourt is back to full strength. With a rematch just on the other side of sunset today, let’s get to my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between Alabama and Kentucky in the SEC tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play the early SEC slugfest on Friday night. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Florida vs. Missouri preview, prediction
As mentioned earlier: it’s a a rematch of a January thriller where Missouri stunned the Gators 83-82. That night, Missouri shot the lights out (50.9% FG, 11-for-23 from three) and got a 22-point explosion from Caleb Grill, while Florida nearly stole it late behind Walter Clayton Jr.’s 28-point effort. But here’s the key stat: Missouri got crushed on the glass (-12 rebounding margin). Florida had every opportunity to take control, but defensive lapses and late-game execution let Missouri escape.
The difference now? Florida is healthier, and Alex Condon is back in the frontcourt. Since returning from injury, Condon has averaged 9.8 rebounds per game, adding a level of physicality the Gators lacked in the first matchup. Florida already leads the SEC in rebounding margin (+8.2 per game), and with Condon controlling the glass, Missouri’s biggest weakness—its -6.7 rebounding margin in SEC play—is even more exposed.
Offensively, Missouri remains dangerous. They actually outscore Florida on the season (84.6 PPG to 84.5 PPG) and rank top-15 nationally in field goal percentage (48.7%). But their defensive issues haven’t gone away—they’re still giving up 73.2 PPG and struggle mightily with second-chance points. If they’re not knocking down shots at an elite clip, they’ll have no way to match Florida’s size and physicality inside.
Missouri at Florida pick, best bet
At the risk of banking on the first half spread for two SEC quarterfinal favorites (see my Kentucky write-up here), the first-half line (-5.5) for Florida is the sharpest angle. The Gators, coming off a double-bye, should come out aggressive and focused, using their rebounding advantage to dictate possessions and push Missouri into tough looks. The full-game spread (-8.5) leaves some risk if Missouri’s shot-making travels, but if Florida dominates the glass early, this could be decided by halftime.
This game comes down to shot-making vs. physicality—just like it did in January. Missouri has to shoot 50% or better to keep pace, while Florida just needs to control the boards and let the numbers play out. With Condon back and the Gators looking for revenge, expect Florida to take control early.
Once more: the rest advantage is huge, especially against a Missouri team that just had to grind through an opening-round game. The Gators come in with fresh legs and a well-prepped game plan, while Missouri is dealing with the quick turnaround—something that could show up in transition defense and rebounding early. Florida already plays at an aggressive tempo, ranking top-50 in adjusted tempo nationally, and that extra energy could fuel a fast start, particularly against a Missouri team that ranks in the bottom half of the SEC in first-half scoring margin. If the Gators push the pace and dominate the glass from the jump, this could turn into a rout before Missouri has time to settle in.
Best bet: Florida 1H -5.5 (-105)
Lean: Florida -8.5 (-120)
Go again with me as we back another SEC favorite’s first half spread tonight in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
