It’s past midnight, and if you’re still locked in, you’re one of us—the ones who live for these late-night battles. The Mountain West semifinals are serving up a thriller, and Utah State vs. Colorado State is exactly the kind of game that makes staying up worth it. Two teams, one point spread, everything on the line. For the last of the sicko nightcap games, I run down my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this semifinal college basketball game between Colorado State and Utah State in the Mountain West tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this game which, technically, starts tomorrow. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
Colorado State vs. Utah State preview, prediction
Utah State has the offense to make this their game. The Aggies are a top-30 scoring team in the country (81.2 PPG) and shoot a scorching 49.4% from the field. They run crisp sets, move the ball beautifully (1.68 assist-to-turnover ratio), and don’t waste possessions. In last night’s 70-58 win over UNLV, they dished out 17 assists on 26 made field goals—textbook efficiency. Ian Martinez led the charge with 17 points, and Mason Falslev stuffed the stat sheet with 15 points, nine boards, and six dimes. When Utah State controls the flow, they become a nightmare to slow down.
Colorado State, though, has been on fire. The Rams have won eight straight and just took out Nevada 67-59 in a grind-it-out quarterfinal. Nique Clifford was unstoppable, dropping 25 points and 14 rebounds, and CSU flexed its elite defense, holding the Wolf Pack to 37% shooting. This is their identity—smart, tough, and frustrating to play against. They don’t have Utah State’s offensive pop, but they control tempo (75.1 PPG, 47.8% FG) and make teams work for everything.
So where will the edge surface? Utah State has the advantage in efficiency and offensive firepower, but Colorado State is the hotter team, riding a wave of momentum. This is where the battle on the glass might swing it—Utah State averages a +5.1 rebounding margin over their last five, while CSU is barely breaking even at +0.6. If the Aggies control second-chance points, their offense might just be too much to handle.
Utah State at Colorado State pick, best bet
This is going to be a war, but in a near pick’em spot, the edge leans Utah State. They’ve been more consistent offensively, they move the ball better, and their ability to create high-percentage looks is the difference. Colorado State’s defense is elite, but Utah State is simply the tougher team to slow down over 40 minutes. The Aggies should pull away late and cover the -1.
And if you’re up this late? You deserve to cash it.
Best bet: Utah State -1 (-102)
Tail the Aggies to take care of business with me for a second day in a row in the DKN Betting Group here!
