If you’ve been following my columns, you know how much I love a late-night-sweat. A tuck-me-in game. And we’ve got another absolute heater tonight in the Mountain West Championship—one of my favorites, always, during conference tournament week. The Utah State Aggies play home team against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels tonight out in Las Vegas tonight. I’ve got you covered below with my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between Utah State and UNLV in the Mountain West tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this red-eye Mountain West clash tonight. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Utah State vs. UNLV preview, prediction
Utah State’s strategy revolves around staunch defense, rebounding dominance, and efficient offense. They’ve held opponents to an average of 69.9 points per game, a testament to their defensive prowess. Offensively, the Aggies have been prolific, averaging 81.5 points per game, placing them 26th nationally.
A key contributor has been guard Drake Allen, a graduate senior transfer from Utah Valley, who has seamlessly integrated into the team. Allen’s recent performances have been noteworthy, particularly his 22-point, eight-assist game against New Mexico, showcasing his ability to orchestrate the offense and score efficiently.
Another standout is forward Pavle Stošić, a sophomore transfer from Gonzaga, who has provided a significant presence in the paint. Stošić’s recent double-double against San Diego State, where he tallied 18 points and 12 rebounds, underscores his importance in controlling the interior.
The Aggies’ rebounding margin of +5.01 further emphasizes their dominance on the boards, limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Not to be underestimated: UNLV’s Dedan Thomas Jr.
On the other side, UNLV’s season has been characterized by flashes of brilliance amidst bouts of inconsistency. Their offense has been spearheaded by freshman sensation Dedan Thomas Jr., who has been a revelation this season. Thomas Jr. has averaged 15.6 points and 5.1 assists per game, leading the team in both categories. His recent 25-point outburst against Boise State, coupled with seven assists, should remind us all he can take truly take over a game.
Complementing him: Guard Jaden Henley, a junior transfer from DePaul, who has found his rhythm late in the season. Henley’s recent stretch, averaging 17 points over the last five games, including a 20-point performance against Fresno State, has been instrumental in the Rebels’ late-season push.
However, UNLV’s Achilles’ heel has been their rebounding, with a margin of -1.2, ranking them eighth in the conference. This deficiency has often led to extended defensive possessions and increased pressure on their offense to compensate.
However! …
… The Rebels’ recent defensive improvements are noteworthy. They’ve held opponents to 64.4 points per game in their last five outings, a significant drop from their season average. This tightening of defense has been pivotal in their five wins over the last six games; see that statement victory over Boise State. However, their rebounding woes persist, having been out-rebounded in four of those six games. This could be massively detrimental against a Utah State team that capitalizes on second-chance points.
X-Factors
They’ll play a huge role in this Mountain West quarterfinal, and Utah State’s biggest might be its ability to control pace. The Aggies thrive in structured half-court sets, using their size and rebounding to dictate possessions. If they can slow the game down and force UNLV into a grind-it-out battle, it plays directly into their hands. On the flip side, UNLV’s best chance to cover—and even pull off the upset—lies in its ability to speed things up.
The Rebels have been at their best when forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, a style that could exploit Utah State’s sometimes sluggish perimeter defense. Dedan Thomas Jr. is the kind of guard who can break a game open with his speed, and if he controls tempo early, Utah State may struggle to settle into its game plan. Another factor? Three-point shooting. The Aggies shoot 36% from deep, but in their last loss, they hit just 29%. If they go cold from outside, UNLV could hang around.
UNLV at Utah State pick, best bet
Of course, there’s a case to be made for the Rebels keeping this one close. They’re at home, they’re riding a wave of late-season success, and they’ve already shown they can beat top teams in the conference. Their defense has tightened up at just the right time, and Thomas Jr. has the playmaking ability to carve up even a disciplined Utah State unit. Plus, Utah State has had occasional struggles closing out games—if UNLV can keep it within striking distance late, anything can happen.
Still, the edge leans toward Utah State. The Aggies’ defensive consistency, rebounding dominance, and ability to execute in half-court offense make them the more trustworthy team in a tournament setting. UNLV’s streaky shooting and rebounding disadvantage make them a risky bet to cover, even at home. If Utah State sticks to its identity and wins the battle inside, the Aggies should cover the 8.5-point spread.
Best bet: Utah State -8.5 (-105)
Tail the Aggies to win definitively against UNLV in Vegas tonight with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
