The conference tournament is officially reaching its crescendo. You could easily make the argument that today & tomorrow are just as good, if not better, than the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. The sheer volume of high quality, win-at-all-costs basketball is almost overwhelming.
Don’t drown in the deep end. Instead of being consumed by this monstrous CBB schedule and recklessly spraying the board, lock in on what you feel most confident in. Let’s head to Indianapolis for Round 2 of the Big Ten Tournament, and I will attempt to give you exactly that.
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
(14) USC vs. (6) Purdue (9pm ET)
Southern Cal enters Thursday night’s contest as a 10.5-point underdog following a 97-89 2OT victory over Rutgers late last night. The first bout between SC and Purdue saw the Boilermakers boat-race the Trojans, 90-72 in West Lafayette back in early February.
In his first year as USC’s head man, Eric Musselman led a lackluster regular season campaign that saw his squad go just 7-13 in league play including dropping 6 of their last 7 in the Trojan’s inaugural Big Ten season. Turnovers (223rd nationally per KenPom) and a poor interior defense (303rd in opponent 2-point shooting) have been the two issue areas throughout the year. Despite this, the Trojans managed to improbably pick off Rutgers in the school’s first ever B10 Tournament game.
Purdue, like USC, rolls into Indy on a bit of a slide themselves. The 6-seeded Boilermakers (21-10 overall, 13-7 in Big Ten) went just 2-5 in their final 7, albeit 4 of those 5 losses on the road. That’s more or less where similarities between the two teams end, highlighted most prominently by Purdue’s dynamic duo. Braden Smith (16.3ppg & 8.8apg, 40% from 3) just took home Big Ten Player of the Year honors, while Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.7ppg & 6.1rpg on 61% shooting) collected 1st Team All-Big Ten First Team recognition alongside Smith. The two co-captain the most efficient offense in the Big Ten (per KenPom) and are orchestrated by Matt Painter, one of the very best coaches in the land.
When looking at this matchup, both team’s offenses have distinct advantages over the opposition’s defense. Southern Cal’s bread and butter is getting to the rim, and Purdue’s 2-point defense is far from stout (allowing 58.7% shooting from 2 in league play, last in Big Ten per Ken Pom). Anchored by guard Desmond Claude (who didn’t even play in the first matchup at Purdue), the Trojans will be licking their chops at the Boilermakers’ lack of size and interior stopping power. On the other end of the floor, Purdue has endless options to attack a rather porous SC stopping unit. The Boilermakers, spearheaded by Kaufman-Renn’s 24 points, racked up 90 despite shooting just 23% from three.
I’m staying away from the full game total here (148.5); I’m a bit weary of USC running out of gas after playing two extra frames less than 24 hours before tipoff of this game. I expect USC to come out of the gates fresh and, obviously, with no rust, while Purdue may settle into the contest. USC first to 10 and even first to 20 aren’t bad ideas, but the first half total over is what is speaking to me.
The Pick: Over 69.5 1st Half Total Points
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
