As the clock winds down toward tonight’s 11:30 p.m. Big West quarterfinal, UC Riverside and Cal Poly square off in a battle that should be more competitive than their seeding suggests. UC Riverside enters as the No. 3 seed after a strong 14-6 conference run, while No. 7 seed Cal Poly is riding momentum after knocking off UC Davis in the first round. For the final late-night-sweat of this Thursday evening, I give you my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly in the Big West Tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this small-market, small-hours match. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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UC Riverside vs. Cal Poly preview, prediction
The primary question here is: will Riverside’s consistency win out, or is Cal Poly primed for another surprise? Here’s where they stand.
Current form
Riverside’s offense has been its calling card all season, averaging 74.9 points per game behind the stellar play of senior guard Barrington Hargress. He’s been the engine of this attack, averaging 20.6 points per game and finding ways to score from all three levels. His ability to control the tempo and put pressure on defenses has been a key reason why the Highlanders have covered the spread in four of their last six.
They also hold a +3.1 rebounding margin, led by C Joel Armotrading, who averages 6.7 boards per game. Second-chance opportunities and overall control of the glass have allowed Riverside to dictate terms against most Big West opponents.
Cal Poly, however, is a different team than the one that stumbled through much of the regular season. Their 86-76 win over UC Davis was a statement—not just in terms of advancing, but in the way they played. They shot 48% from the field, moved the ball well, and clamped down defensively in the second half.
The Mustangs don’t have a singular offensive star, but their balanced attack has been clicking, and guard Kobe Sanders has quietly been one of the more dangerous shooters in the conference, averaging 15.2 points on 39% from three over his last five games.
Razor edges
Turnovers could be a major difference-maker here. Riverside has taken excellent care of the ball lately, posting a +3.2 turnover margin over their last five games, a sharp improvement from their season-long mark of +1.1. Cal Poly, on the other hand, has struggled with giveaways all year, ranking near the bottom of the Big West with a -2.4 turnover margin. If the Highlanders continue to win the possession battle, that’s one more obstacle for the Mustangs to overcome.
The decisive swing in this matchup might come down to perimeter shooting. Riverside makes 9.0 threes per game at a 33.9% clip, while Cal Poly ranks near the bottom of the Big West in three-point defense. If the Highlanders find their rhythm from deep, it’s hard to see the Mustangs keeping pace. However, if Cal Poly can disrupt their shooters and keep this game inside, where Riverside isn’t as dominant, the upset door opens wide.
Cal Poly at UC Riverside pick, best bet
Cal Poly’s improved play can’t be ignored, and their first-round performance suggests they’ll be competitive. But Riverside’s steady offensive production, rebounding edge, superior ball security, and three-point shooting give them more ways to take control. If Hargress continues his hot streak, the Highlanders force turnovers, and the fresh legs factor in late, Riverside should have enough to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Best bet: UC Riverside -4.5 (-115)
Tail UC Riverside to take care of business to close out Thursday’s slate with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
