March basketball is all about momentum, but it’s just as much about trust—something Rick Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos haven’t always earned this season. San Jose State, meanwhile, comes in as a heavy underdog, but if there’s one thing this tournament has proven time and again, it’s that no game is decided on paper. Like, almost not one so far. I digress. Let’s get right into it: my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between the New Mexico Lobos and the San Jose State Spartans today.
Here’s how I intend to play this MW mid-afternoon feature. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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New Mexico vs. San Jose State prediction, preview
Basic Stats
Statistically, New Mexico’s defense has been formidable, limiting opponents to an average of 65.2 points per game, while their offense averages 78.5 points. In contrast, San Jose State has allowed 72.3 points per game and scored an average of 68.7 points. The Lobos’ ability to control the tempo and execute on both ends has been a hallmark of their season.
Recent performances indicate that New Mexico has maintained consistency, winning eight of their last ten games, aligning with their season averages. San Jose State, however, has struggled, dropping six of their last ten, often falling short of their offensive benchmarks. This disparity in momentum could play a crucial role in the upcoming matchup.
New Mexico’s recent surge has been fueled by dominant individual performances, particularly from Donovan Dent, who has been the engine of their offense. In his last three games, Dent has averaged 18.7 points, 5.3 assists, and 2.1 steals, showcasing his ability to control the game on both ends of the floor. Forward JT Toppin has also been a force in the paint, posting back-to-back double-doubles, including a 17-point, 12-rebound outing against Colorado State. Jamal Mashburn Jr., a consistent scoring threat, has chipped in with 16.2 points per game over his last five contests, knocking down nearly 40% of his three-pointers.
X-Factor for the underdog
If there’s one potential X-factor for San Jose State, it’s their recent surge in three-point shooting. The Spartans have quietly become one of the more dangerous perimeter teams in the Mountain West over the past few games, knocking down 38.6% of their threes in their last five contests—well above their season average of 34.2%. Much of that can be attributed to the emergence of Tibet Görener, who has been lights out from deep, shooting 45% from beyond the arc in that stretch.
Additionally, the Spartans’ ability to slow the game down and limit possessions could be a factor in keeping this game competitive. San Jose State plays at one of the slowest tempos in the conference, ranking near the bottom of the Mountain West in pace, which could disrupt New Mexico’s rhythm and prevent the Lobos from running up the score in transition. If the Spartans can hit their threes at an elite clip and dictate the tempo, they might just hang around longer than expected.
Lagging Lobos
New Mexico’s defense—especially on the perimeter—has been inconsistent throughout Mountain West play. While the Lobos boast strong overall defensive metrics, ranking in the top 50 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, their three-point defense has been a weak spot. During conference play, they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 36.1% from beyond the arc, a noticeable drop from their season-long mark of 32.8%. That’s a concerning trend against a San Jose State team that has been heating up from deep.
Recent games illustrate this issue. In their last matchup against Utah State, the Lobos allowed the Aggies to shoot 11-of-24 (45.8%) from three, which played a major role in their 12-point loss. Similarly, in their February loss to Nevada, the Wolf Pack hit 10-of-23 (43.5%) from deep. Even in wins, New Mexico has struggled to consistently close out on shooters, often relying on their ability to force turnovers (ranking 2nd in the MWC in opponent turnover rate) to make up for those lapses.
San Jose State at New Mexico pick, prediction
If San Jose State can take advantage of this defensive inconsistency—particularly with Tibet Görener and Myron Amey Jr. both shooting over 38% from three in recent weeks—this game could be closer than expected, especially against a 15.5-point spread.
Rick Pitino’s New Mexico Lobos have been defined by inconsistency in Mountain West play, flashing dominance in transition and on the glass but struggling to maintain it. They crushed Utah State by 22 at home, only to lose the rematch by 12, and after beating Nevada in Albuquerque, they collapsed in Reno, allowing the Wolf Pack to shoot 50% from the field. Even against weaker teams, their results have wavered, barely escaping Fresno State in a 66-65 nail-biter despite being double-digit favorites. Their top-25 tempo fuels their offense, but when forced into slower games—like their 71-65 loss to UNLV—their efficiency plummets. Their 36.1% opponent three-point percentage and tendency to allow extended scoring runs make them vulnerable, even as they rank 2nd in the MWC in opponent turnover rate. If the good Lobos show up, they could roll past San Jose State, but if their volatility persists, a 15.5-point spread may be too much to cover.
But we’re taking the Spartans to ride their recent momentum and cover, here.
Best bet: San Jose State +15.5 (-108)
Tail the Spartans to keep it hot from behind the arc and cover the number against the Lobos with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
