Colorado has been the story of the Big 12 tournament, stringing together two improbable wins as a No. 16 seed, but now they run into a Houston team that has been ruthlessly efficient all season. The Cougars boast one of the nation’s most suffocating defenses, allowing just 58.4 points per game, and they’ve been even better lately—holding teams to a mere 55.6 over their last five contests. Let’s run down my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this quarterfinal college basketball game between Houston and Colorado in the Big 12 tournament.
Here’s how I intend to play this Big 12 afternoon heater. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Houston vs. Colorado preview, prediction
As the Colorado Buffaloes and Houston Cougars clash in the Big 12 tournament quarterfinal, the contrast between the two teams couldn’t be sharper. Houston has been a machine all season, compiling a dominant 27-4 record and steamrolling the conference with a near-flawless 19-1 mark. Their defense has been the backbone of their success, holding opponents to just 58.4 points per game—sixth-best in the nation—while their offense methodically grinds teams down at 74.5 points per contest. But even by their own lofty standards, the Cougars have been peaking at the right time. Over their last five games, they’ve improved on their season averages, limiting teams to just 55.6 points while increasing their offensive efficiency, led by L.J. Cryer’s scorching-hot shooting. He poured in 23 points against Baylor, drilling six threes in what felt like a postseason warning shot to the rest of the conference.
Colorado, meanwhile, has been all about defying expectations. Entering the tournament with an underwhelming 14-19 record (3-17 in Big 12 play), the Buffaloes looked dead in the water. But something has clicked in Kansas City. They stunned TCU and then edged out West Virginia, becoming the first No. 16 seed in Big 12 history to win two games in the tournament. The offense, which averaged 69.8 points per game during the regular season, has exploded for 77.5 over their last two contests, led by KJ Simpson’s 22-point performance against the Mountaineers. But the defense remains a concern. Colorado has allowed 70.3 points per game this season, and while they’ve tightened up slightly in the tournament, their ability to hold Houston in check remains a massive question mark.
Colorado at Houston pick, best bet
Momentum can be a dangerous thing in March, but Houston isn’t just another team—this is a squad built for the moment, thriving in high-pressure situations. Colorado’s run has been inspiring, but against a team this disciplined, this relentless, the margin for error is razor-thin. If Houston continues to outpace even its own elite numbers, the Buffaloes’ Cinderella story may be running on borrowed time.
Even though the spread is massive, with Houston as whopping -17.5-point favorites. And, while Colorado’s tournament surge has been impressive, Houston’s dominance is built on consistency, and that’s exactly what covers big spreads in March.
The Cougars’ defense isn’t just elite—it’s improving, and their offense, led by L.J. Cryer’s perimeter shooting, has been clicking at the right time. Colorado has outperformed its season averages offensively in Kansas City, but against Houston, the shots will be harder to find, and the pace won’t be in their favor. The Buffaloes would need another near-perfect shooting night to keep this within 17.5 points, but against a Houston team that has held opponents under 60 nearly all season, that’s a tall order. Houston has all the tools to pull away late and comfortably cover the number.
Pinching my nose a little bit, here, but the Cougars are as healthy as they’ve been in a tournament game since before Jamal Shead declared for the NBA draft. Since before Marcus Sasser’s absence defined a March Madness of years past. Houston wants to dominate, and win the title. It starts here.
Best bet: Houston -17.5 (-115)
Back the Cougs to cover the, quite literally, *massive* spread against the surging Buffs with me today in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
