The PGA TOUR continues its Florida swing this week for THE PLAYERS Championship. This event is known as the “fifth major” and is truly one of the best weeks in professional golf. TPC Sawgrass will be the host course, as it always is, and measures as a 7,352-yard par 72 with Bermuda grass greens.
We will have a full-field event this week with the top-65 and ties all making the 36-hole cut. Scottie Scheffler is of course the marquee draw, as he’ll be looking for his third consecutive win at this event. Overall, 48 of the top-50 ranked golfers in the world will be teeing it up.
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Patrick Cantlay to win (+4000)
I realize Cantlay has not won since the 2022 BMW Championship, but it is still jarring to see a player of his caliber at 40/1. He’s quietly had a very strong season so far, posting a pair of top-fives at the AMEX and Genesis, along with a T15 at the Sentry. During this stretch, the eight-time PGA TOUR winner ranks 14th in this field in Total Strokes Gained,
He’s played well in different areas every week this season, but has just yet to put all four phases of his game together during one tournament. For example, he gained 4.4 strokes on approach at Pebble Beach but also lost 4.3 putting. At Genesis, he gained 6.1 strokes putting, 3.5 on approach but sadly lost 2.7 around the green, which is what kept him from truly contending. As you can see, he’s been all over the place, but that does not mean he cant put it all together and win a marquee event like THE PLAYERS.
As far as Cantlay’s history around TPC Sawgrass, it’s not been his favorite course on the circuit, but he still does have three top-23 finishes in six starts.
This is an extreme buy-low opportunity on an elite golfer who’s absolutely going to win again, and the price is as good as it’s been in a few years.
Daniel Berger to win (+6000)
Another great number here on a golfer who’s in some of the best form of any current PGA TOUR golfer. Berger looks to be fully recovered from a back injury that’s plagued him for almost two years. He closed the 2024 season quite strong, with top-seven finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship and RSM Classic, before then picking up right where he left off to start the new year, posting a T2 at the WMPO.
Since that runner-up, Berger has finished T25 or better in each of his next three starts, and looks to be as dialed in as he was before his injury. If you go back 36 rounds in this field, you’ll find Berger ranks ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green and fifth in Total Strokes Gained, trailing only Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Michael Kim and Tommy Fleetwood.
He’s also had quite a bit of success at TPC Sawgrass in his career, making the cut in six-of-seven starts with a T13 and two T9s in that stretch. Berger is a Florida man through and through, and has always thrived on the Bermuda greens in the Sunshine State.
He’s has been knocking on the door for a few weeks now, and picking up a win in his home state at arguably the fifth biggest event of the season would be the ultimate “I’m back” moment. At 60/1, I am more than happy to take that chance and back Berger here.