These Stanford and Cal programs have been going at it (read: loathing each other) for over a century, turning every matchup into a battle for Bay Area bragging rights. No matter the records or the stakes, this rivalry always brings the intensity, where anything can happen, and usually does. While these two NCAAM squads might not be on the same level, it’d be unwise to expect any lack of intensity from either side tonight as they battle it out in the ACC tournament bracket. Let’s get to my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this second-round college basketball game between Stanford and Cal in the ACC tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play tonight’s game. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout Champ Week!
Stanford vs. Cal preview, prediction
Stanford and Cal enter this matchup on very different trajectories, and the Cardinal are well-positioned to exploit the fatigue weighing on their Bay Area rivals. Under first-year head coach Kyle Smith, Stanford has had its ups and downs, but when its defense is locked in, it can smother teams into submission. That will be key against a Cal squad that has just endured an absolutely brutal stretch—six overtime periods in its last two games, including a four-OT loss to Notre Dame and a grueling double-OT win over Virginia Tech. That kind of mileage catches up to a team, particularly on the defensive end, where tired legs mean slower closeouts and weaker rebounding.
Statistically, Cal has been inconsistent, averaging 72.5 points per game on 44.1% shooting, while allowing opponents to score 71.2 points on 42.8% shooting. However, their defense has dipped over the past few outings, giving up an average of nearly 80 points over their last five games. Their rebounding, a strength for much of the season at 35.6 per game, has also taken a hit, especially when Jovan Blackshear has been off the floor. If he’s unavailable or limited, that could open the door for Stanford to dominate the glass.
Specifically, it spells trouble against Maxime Raynaud, who already pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. and now gets to face a team that may be running on fumes. His 7-foot-1 frame makes him a natural problem for Cal, but it’s his ability to elevate his game in big moments that makes him an even bigger threat. Against Top 50 opponents this season, his defensive rebounding percentage is two points higher than his average—a trend that should continue given the circumstances.
And then there’s his scoring. Raynaud has been automatic, hitting this point total in 10 of his last 11 games. The first time he saw Cal, he dropped 20 with ease. Now, he faces a team that’s likely battling exhaustion, and if history is any indication, he’ll make them feel every bit of it on the boards and on the scoreboard.
The biggest storyline here, though, just to emphasize once more? Stanford’s defense against a struggling Cal offense. The Bears may rank a respectable 95th in adjusted offensive efficiency, but their shooting numbers tell a different story—they sit at a dismal 310th in field goal percentage (41.8%), which doesn’t bode well against a fresh Stanford squad. The Cardinal, sitting 84th in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowing just 102.3 points per 100 possessions, have the tools to apply pressure and force Cal into tough shots.
Cal at Stanford pick, best bet
Meanwhile, Stanford has averaged 71.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting, but their recent performances have been slightly underwhelming, dipping below their season averages in three of their last five games. However, their defense has remained relatively stable, allowing 69.8 points per game on 42.5% shooting. Against a potentially gassed Cal team, that defensive stability could be the difference-maker.
Mark Madsen has his Golden Bears playing with grit, but there’s only so much a team can give before exhaustion takes its toll. Meanwhile, Stanford has had more time to recalibrate after a rough offensive showing against Louisville, and if Smith’s squad can set the tone early, Cal may not have the energy to match the intensity. Factor in Stanford’s ability to control pace and force opponents into uncomfortable offensive situations, and this one has all the makings of a game where the Cardinal can create separation early and never look back.
Cardinal flies. Let’s lean on a little prop bet for our man Raynaud, too, seeing his matchup advantage. I’ll update this article when his props appear on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best bet: Stanford -5.5 (-112)
Tail the Cardinal to cruise in their latest rivalry game against Cal with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
