Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I’ll bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently sees Scottie Barnes to have a 50% chance to play today at home against the Sixers. With teammates RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley ruled out for rest, it wouldn’t be a shocker to see him sit for a Raptors team that has started to ramp down minutes for key rotational players. Barnes’ status is key to watch for on tonight’s slate with a depleted Toronto roster that will also likely be without Gradey Dick, Ja’Kobe Walter and Ochai Agbaji.
Barnes averages a 26.7% usage rate, 12.5% rebound rate and 27.5% assist rate this season overall. In court time without Quickley, Barrett and fellow high-usage injured teammate Gradey Dick, Barnes is closer to a 30% usage rate and 35% assist rate. Those huge leaps in rates result in a substantial increase for Barnes to 1.32 DraftKings Points Per Minute. Despite the expectation for lesser minutes in the game, Barnes would be a compelling play in DraftKings tournaments tonight with a high likelihood for a lot of production in the court time he’d see.
If Barnes plays, Unabated NBA projects him for 21.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 30 minutes of action. There would also be a lofty 11.7% Expected Value on teammate Jakob Poeltl’s under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook if Barnes were to play, a premier bet to take quickly if Barnes were confirmed active.
If Barnes sits, there are two Raptors with betting markets that would see the following shift in their projections:
- Jakob Poeltl projects for 15.4 points, 9 rebounds and 4.2 assists (14.5 points, 8 rebounds and 2.8 assists if Barnes is in)
- Jamal Shead projects for 13.2 points, 2.4 rebounds and 9.1 assists (12.9 points, 2.7 rebounds and 8.6 assists if Barnes is in)
There would also be 5.6% Expected Value on Jakob Poeltl’s over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists bet on DraftKings Sportsbook if Barnes sits, making him a player with positive EV no matter which way Barnes’ status breaks. Prop bets like these for Jakob Poeltl are one of the best ways to use the combination of timely news updates and Unabated NBA’s Conditional Projections to transact high-quality bets.
For DraftKings tournaments, players like the recent slate breaker AJ Lawson, Jared Rhoden and Jamison Battle would also likely see an appreciable increase in projections and ownership if Barnes were to miss tonight’s game. Will Toronto sit Barnes in an effort to find a way to out-tank Philadelphia? Thankfully we’ll know early; Raptors-Sixers tips off at 7:30 PM Eastern, among the first three games that start at that time on tonight’s slate.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
