The Big Sky championship showdown between Northern Colorado and Montana is shaping up to be a battle of strengths and weaknesses, but the numbers suggest the Bears have a clear upper hand tonight. After Montana scorched Idaho last night after a double-bye and the rest advantage, they’ll shoulder up against an equally-molten-hot Northern Colorado Bears squad. And these two teams have met before—there’s insights abound from that sample size, and we’ll get to it below, along with my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this conference title game in the Big Sky Championship tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play tonight’s game. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout Champ Week!
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Northern Colorado vs. Montana preview, prediction
Montana has struggled on the boards all season, ranking 276th in overall rebounding percentage and a dismal 356th in offensive rebounding. With no second-chance opportunities, their 95th-ranked offense relies on tough shot-making—a risky formula. It worked in the second meeting but isn’t sustainable, especially against a Northern Colorado squad that dominates the glass, ranking fourth in offensive rebounds allowed and 13th in total rebounds at a 79.4% clip. Montana needs to shoot the lights out, but Northern Colorado—seventh in effective field goal percentage and first in overall shooting (50.9%)—can pile up points with ease. The Bears don’t just grind out wins—they can torch the scoreboard too.They don’t just win ugly—they can light up the scoreboard too.
Defensively, Montana faces an uphill battle. The Grizzlies allow opponents to shoot 45.1% from the floor, ranking a lowly 259th in the country. They give up a 50.6% effective field goal percentage (294th nationally). That’s a nightmare matchup against a Northern Colorado team that ranks inside the top 40 in scoring at 81.1 points per game. As for their deep-shooting? They convert at an elite 37.6% clip from beyond the arc. Montana has relied on its own shooting efficiency—ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage—but that advantage is neutralized against a Northern Colorado squad that is even better, sitting in the top 10 nationally in the same category.
In their first meeting, Northern Colorado overwhelmed Montana in an 81-57 rout, dominating the boards and holding the Grizzlies to a dreadful 34.5% shooting performance. That game mirrored the Bears’ typical formula for success—efficient scoring, relentless rebounding, and stifling defense. But when the teams met again, Montana flipped the script in stunning fashion, shooting an absurd 62.0% from the field and out-rebounding the Bears 27-21 to secure the win. The question now: was that second game a sign of a real shift, or just an outlier? The numbers lean heavily toward the latter.
Montana at Northern Colorado pick, best bet
Individual performances could tip the scales as well. For Montana, Money Williams leads the team with 13.5 points and 3.1 assists per game, while Malik Moore adds 13 points and 3.2 rebounds. But beyond them, offensive production has been inconsistent. Meanwhile, Northern Colorado boasts a more balanced attack, led by Isaiah Hawthorne’s 17.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, with Langston Reynolds chipping in 16.2 points and a team-high 5.8 rebounds. Jaron Rillie orchestrates the offense with 11.7 points and 4.7 assists per contest. The Bears simply have more firepower, and unless Montana finds a way to match them shot for shot, this game could look a lot like the first meeting.
Barring another outlandish shooting performance from Montana—like the 62% mark they somehow hit in the second meeting—it’s hard to see the Grizzlies keeping up. Northern Colorado is too efficient, too dominant on the boards, and too well-rounded offensively. The Bears should be able to dictate the pace, own the rebounding battle, and ultimately take care of business to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Expect a competitive fight early, but the numbers don’t lie—Northern Colorado is built to win this one, and cover the spread.
We’ll also lean on the over, here, as Montana is always set up in scoreboard-igniting spots.
Best bet: Northern Colorado -2.5 (-110)
Lean: Northern Colorado vs. Montana o147.5 total points (-105)
Tail Northern Colorado to cover the spread and punch Wednesday’s final ticket with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
