UPDATE: Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis (illness) has been ruled out for tonight’s contest.
Tonight’s clash between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Boston Celtics is a possible NBA Finals preview. Oklahoma City is running away with the Western Conference, with a 53-12 record and -130 odds to ultimately win the conference, while Boston is the favorite to come out of the East despite being eight games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.
However, there are several injury questions that take some of the intrigue off of the contest. For the Celtics, Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with an illness and Jayson Tatum is questionable with a knee issue. Thunder forward Jalen Williams is out indefinitely after suffering a hip strain on Monday.
Given Williams’ injury, Boston is a 2.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-142 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 229.5. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is +120 on the Moneyline.
Kristaps Porzingis U15.5 Points (-115)
The Celtics’ decision to upgrade Porzingis from doubtful to questionable bodes well for the possibility of him playing in this contest, but even if he plays, I wouldn’t expect much from him. He’s missed each of the last six games with his illness, so he won’t be nearly 100%. Boston probably won’t need much from him, given its depth; Porzingis was hardly a factor in last season’s playoff run, missing both the second round and the conference finals and playing in just three of the five NBA Finals games. If he suits up, he’ll almost certainly be on a minutes restriction.
Plus, Oklahoma City’s defense is the NBA’s best, allowing just 106.1 points per 100 possessions, and although the Thunder have been mostly stellar against perimeter players, thanks to their bevy of big wings, their twin-towers approach of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein has allowed them to be relatively effective against interior players as well. Since February 7, when Holmgren made his return from the fractured hip that cost him nearly three months, opponents have shot 4.0 percentage points worse than usual within 10 feet of the basket against Oklahoma City, the second-best mark in the league. Holmgren has been particularly spectacular, holding opponents to 18.2 percentage points worse than usual when he guards them.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander U40.5 Points + Assists (-120)
Interestingly, while the Thunder have had the league’s best defense on a season-long basis, the Celtics have been far better over the last month. Since February 12, Oklahoma City has actually allowed the 12th-most points per game, while Boston has allowed fewer than any team except the Los Angeles Lakers and Orlando Magic. The main consideration is the fact that the Celtics have allowed by far the fewest free throw attempts per game during that span — just 14.5 per game, four fewer than any other team — but it’s not the only factor, as opponents have also shot worse than average from the field, from deep, and from the free throw line. Boston has also allowed the league’s seventh-fewest assists across that span.
It’s hard to bet against the likely MVP, especially given that he’s averaged 33.3 points and 7.3 assists per game over the last month and should have a higher usage rate tonight without his second-best player. In three previous games without Williams this season, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 30.0 points and 8.3 assists per game, but he played 30 or fewer minutes in all three of them and in one of the games, he posted his fifth-highest usage rate of the season. He should shoot the ball plenty, but will he get to the charity stripe? As unfair as much the criticism of his tendency to draw free throws is, he does average 8.0 made free throws per game, the most in the league, so the Celtics’ disciplined defensive approach could make all the difference tonight.
Aaron Wiggins O4.5 Rebounds (-105)
The six-foot-six wing has put up some huge rebounding performances in the past, with the crown jewel being a 14-board performance against the Sacramento Kings on February 1, which included six offensive rebounds. He’s also recorded at least five rebounds in six of his last nine games despite starting only one game across that stretch. With an expanded role, he should be have no trouble getting to that number tonight, having done so in two of the four games that he played without Williams.
Plus, while Boston has been defensively solid all season, it has been somewhat susceptible on the boards, giving up only the 14th-fewest in the league, a fact that can be partially attributable to Al Horford’s decline and the injuries that have limited Porzingis to just 32 games all season. Plus, the Celtics attempt more than five three-pointers more than any other team in the league, and because threes have a higher dispersion than closer shots, it allows players farther from the basket to have chances at defensive rebounds. That benefits a player like Wiggins, who’s not a traditional paint bruiser and grabs his average rebound 7.1 feet away from the basket.
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