Conference Tournaments are now in full swing as teams around the country begin to see their seasons come to an end or they earn their path to the NCAA Tournament. The Big East is especially interesting from this angle, as there are a few talented teams with murky paths to the tournament. Villanova falls firmly in this category and will take on Seton Hall tonight as they look to strengthen their resume and take a chance at earning the outright bid by winning it all.
Villanova has picked up the unfortunate habit of blowing some games late in an extremely ugly fashion. Kyle Neptune’s job outlook is as concerning as ever, with a strong performance in the tournament necessary for his safety. Villanova has blown eight games this season in which their chances of winning were calculated to be 80% or above during the matchup per ESPN. In their previous game, they led Georgetown 69-60 with 3:26 remaining in the game. Georgetown outscored them 15-4 in the final stretch of gameplay to result in another frustrating loss.
Seton Hall does not have as many heartbreaking losses, but does not have the number of wins to their name either. Shaheen Holloway is in his third season with the program and is set to finish with his worst record. The former Saint Peters coach has shown his ability to rally a team, but Seton Hall has struggled to have any sort of consistent success this season.
This will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. Villanova came out with the victory in the first matchup by a score of 79-67 and 59-54 in the second game. The most recent matchup was roughly three weeks ago, taking place on February 26th.
Villanova enters tonight’s matchup as a 10.5-point favorite and -650 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. Seton Hall holds +470 odds on the Moneyline and the game total is set at 127.5 for the matchup.
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Villanova Analysis
Overall Villanova holds a record of 18-13 and is 11-9 in Big East play. They are currently ranked 53rd in the NET but their results are all over the board. The Wildcats went 3-6 against Quad 1 opponents, 4-4 against Quad 2 opponents, 5-2 against Quad 3 opponents, and 6-1 when facing Quad 4 teams.
If you are a believer in Villanova, they have shown flashes of looking like one of the best teams in the country. If you are a skeptic, it does not take long for the bad version of the team to show up and they have some of the worst results out of the teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble as well. Villanova’s best wins have been over UConn, Saint Johns, and Marquette. They also suffered losses to Columbia, who rank 269th in the NET, Virginia, Georgetown, Saint Joseph’s, and Providence.
On paper, this should be a really good basketball team. Eric Dixon headlines the scoring production, leading the entire country in scoring at 23.6 points per game. He also leads the conference in three-point percentage at 42.9% while attempting 7.2 perimeter shots per game. Wooga Poplar also provides a nice punch of secondary scoring at 14.2 points and 6.9 rebounds. Poplar brings plenty of experience after spending the past three years at Miami. Jordan Longino is the only other player to average double-figures while Jhamir Brickus, Tyler Perkins, and Enoch Boakye each make their impacts felt on an every-game basis.
The Wildcats rank 169th in the country in scoring at 74.1 points per game and hold opponents to 67.7 points per game, which is the 58th-best rate in the nation. They connect on 39.8% of their three-point attempts as a team which is the second-best rate in the country. Villanova also has the second-best team free-throw percentage at 81.1%. They do struggle to limit the impact of opponents from beyond the three-point arc with teams attempting 25.6 three-point attempts per game. Villanova ranks 329th in this category.
Seton Hall Analysis
It has been a disappointing season for Seton Hall who enter the Big East Tournament with just a 7-24 record and 2-18 in Conference Play. This is the team’s worst record since the 1982-83 season and their first time being held below 10 wins in a season since 1983-84. They are 2-9 against Quad 1 opponents, 0-8 against Quad 2 teams, 2-4 in Quad 3 matchups, and 3-3 against Quad 4 opponents. Their pair of Quad 1 victories were over UConn and VCU.
The root of all of Seton Hall’s issues are on the offensive end. They average just 61.8 points per game, which ranks 363rd out of 364 qualifying teams. They rank 359th in offensive rating, 358th in field goal percentage, 322nd in three-point percentage, and 333rd in free-throw percentage. The Pirates shoot just 66.7% at the free-throw line as a team. Defensively, Seton Hall gives up 70.3 points per game, which ranks 127th in the country. Opponents are still shooting 46.6% from the field and 36.4% from beyond the three-point arc against them which rank 320th and 333rd.
Isaiah Coleman leads the production with 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists per game. Chaunce Jenkins and Dylan Adae-Wusu are the only other players to average in double figures. Prince Aligbe, Godswill Erheriene, and Garwey Dual are a few other notable names to note.
The Pick: Seton Hall +10.5
The pressure is on for Kyle Neptune and Villanova and a strong Conference Tournament performance would go a long way. Unfortunately, I have some serious doubts about their ability to put together a complete performance with the lack of killer instinct becoming more and more evident as the season progressed.
While Villanova secured the victory in both of the previous matchups, it ended in a five-point victory in the previous game and 12 points in the first game. The Wildcats were able to keep the Pirates at an arm’s length throughout, but Seton Hall cut the lead to eight points with less than nine minutes remaining in the game that did end outside of the 10.5-point spread.
The results haven’t been promising, but Seton Hall has not had the look of a team that has quit on the season. It was just seven games ago that they managed to defeat UConn in overtime and they stayed within 10 points against Saint Johns, Xavier, and Villanova during this stretch. Villanova has struggled greatly to close the door on opponents this season. If Seton Hall has a window to compete, they will do just this and that is how I expect things to play out tonight.
Villanova is the better basketball team and should be playing with a more significant hunger. But expect Seton Hall to hang around throughout this matchup and ultimately manage to keep it within the 10.5-point spread. Keep an eye on the level of scoring as it fairs much more in Seton Hall’s favor if this is a defensive battle. Expect this game to finish close to the 59-54 result during the February 26th match and cover the +10.5 spread.
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