It wasn’t easy, but Kansas State survived yesterday in Round 1 of the Big 12 tournament. They get an even taller task tonight, against a Scott Drew-led Baylor Bears team that sits on the bubble for March Madness. With conference postseason play being the only way Kansas state might go dancing, and Baylor hanging onto the music as it fades away, we should expect a classic Big 12 slugfest tonight. I’ll break down my preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this second-round college basketball game between Baylor and Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament tonight.
Here’s how I intend to play this Big 12 marquee. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Baylor vs. Kansas State preview, prediction
Kansas State and Baylor meet tonight in the Big 12 Tournament, and while the Wildcats are fighting for their postseason lives, the Bears are looking to prove they’re more than just an inconsistent team with talent. Kansas State enters this matchup battered but not broken, fresh off a gritty 71-66 win over Arizona State in the first round. That win snapped a three-game skid in which the Wildcats struggled to find offensive rhythm, averaging just 67 points per game—well below their season average of 73.3 PPG. Their shooting woes have been evident, as they’ve hit just 42.7% from the field over their last five games, a noticeable drop from their 45.1% season average. If Kansas State wants to pull off the upset, they’ll need to find that extra gear that has eluded them down the stretch.
Baylor, on the other hand, has been a puzzle all season. At their best, they can go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the country, but at their worst, they’ve been a defensive liability, giving up an average of 75.8 PPG over their last five games—five points worse than their season-long mark. Offensively, they still pack a punch, averaging 77.3 PPG on the year, but recent struggles have them hovering around 72 PPG in their last four outings. The Bears handled Kansas State in their lone regular-season meeting, a 70-62 win in which they dictated the pace and forced the Wildcats into 17 turnovers. That game was a prime example of Baylor’s formula for success: aggressive defense, forcing mistakes, and capitalizing on transition opportunities.
Kansas State at Baylor pick, best bet
There are serious bubble implications to this game. Kansas State is fighting for an NIT bid and a strong finish, while Baylor, sitting on the No. 10 seed line, desperately needs a win to avoid slipping into bubble trouble. Scott Drew’s teams have a history of stepping up when it matters most in March, and a victory here could solidify their NCAA Tournament position—or even improve it. But a loss? That could make Selection Sunday far more stressful than the Bears would like.
Kansas State will need to slow things down and limit giveaways, but the reality is that Baylor has more firepower, more ways to win, and a higher ceiling when they’re locked in. The Wildcats’ offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses make it tough to trust them in a high-stakes setting. Expect Baylor to take control late, cover the spread, and move on.
For the record, and if you’re counting: the Wildcats just missed covering -5.5 yesterday by the wiggle. It was brutal.
Best bet: Baylor -5.5 (-110)
Tail the Bears to put the Big 12, and the rest of the nation, on notice tonight with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
