The 2025 NFL Draft is approaching and Jaxson Dart is one of the best prospects on the board. This is a breakdown of how Dart profiles for the NFL and where he could potentially land.
Jaxson Dart NFL Draft Profile
Dart is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL Draft class, but it is unclear exactly when he will be taken. This is a deep dive into his profile heading into the 2025 NFL Draft.
Physical Traits/College Film
Jaxson Dart is a unique prospect, which is fitting given how unique his college career was. Dart was the 2020 National Gatorade Player of the Year in high school and a top recruit committed to USC. Dart started a couple of games in his freshman season at USC, but following his freshman year, Lincoln Riley was hired as the new head coach at USC. It was a near-certainty that Riley would be bringing Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma to USC and that Williams would be the starter no matter what. That is when Dart decided to transfer to Ole Miss to play for Lane Kiffin. Dart had some struggles in his sophomore season but emerged as a star his junior year and had an even better senior season.
Dart finished the 2024 college football season with the third-most passing yards among FBS quarterbacks and first in QBR among qualified quarterbacks. Jaxson Dart had the pleasure of playing in Kiffin’s quarterback-friendly offense. Kiffin makes it easy for his quarterbacks to put up huge numbers, but Dart did do a lot of things well outside of the confines of the offense. Dart improved in each of his three seasons under Kiffin, allowing him to expand the offense and do more creative things. Before his senior season, Dart lost his star running back Quinshon Judkins, his star receiver Tre Harris was hurt for a big chunk of the season, and Ole Miss’ big transfer WR Juice Wells was mostly a bust. That put a lot of pressure on Dart and he lived up to the task in almost every game of the season.
There are a couple of red flags around Dart’s game despite his great college career. He will have the occasional game where he allows mistakes to compound on themselves and he never recovers. Against Georgia’s elite defense, Dart struggled to produce anything offensively. Then with a College Football Playoff berth on the line, Dart made a couple of massive mistakes that caused Ole Miss to lose to Florida. Dart is a streaky player that can put together incredible drives and masterful games when he is on. However, if he can’t find a rhythm, he will start to force the ball, which will lead to mistakes.
In terms of physical traits, Dart does most things well but nothing spectacularly. He has good accuracy, solid arm strength, reads defenses well and is a good athlete. However, he is not elite at any of these skills. He can push the ball down the field but won’t wow you with his arm strength. He can scramble and pick up chunk yards but is by no means a “running quarterback.” He reads defenses well, but can struggle with decisiveness and getting the ball out quickly. Dart has the faculties to be a successful NFL starter, but it will likely depend on the skill-position players and coaches that he has around him.
NFL Comparisons
Realistic Comp: Gardner Minshew – Jaxson Dart has a lot of Gardner Minshew in his game. He has that undeniable “moxy” that will make him compelling to teams but that moxy can sometimes be his downfall. Similarly to Dart, Minshew would go through hot runs within games and seasons, which made people think at times that he could be a top-tier NFL starter. However, then the lulls would come and Minshew would deal with major turnover issues. Minshew has started 46 games over the last six seasons, which isn’t too shabby, but he is unlikely to be a team’s Week 1 starter ever again. If Dart can spend a couple of years as a starter and then sustain a long career as a backup, that’s not too shabby.
Ceiling Comp: Baker Mayfield – If things go well for Dart, he could take a Baker Mayfield-esque trajectory. Mayfield’s first couple of seasons in the NFL were up-and-down but then he got some great coaching and solid weapons and was able to lead the Browns to a playoff win. Things went sour with the Browns and Mayfield floated around Carolina and Los Angeles, starting a handful of games with little success. It looked like that could be the end of Mayfield’s career as a starter but he seized the opportunity in Tampa Bay and has won the NFC South in back-to-back seasons. Mayfield is another guy whose game is driven by his internal fire and can make some dazzling throws but also some baffling throws. However, Mayfield is now arguably a top-10 starter in the NFL, has won multiple playoff games and has signed a huge contract with the Bucs. That level of success is something Dart could strive for in his career.
Potential Landing Spots
There is still over a month until the 2025 NFL Draft so a lot can change. Dart is currently projected to be the third quarterback selected after Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders. However, there has been some momentum building that Dart could surpass Sanders as the second quarterback taken. Last year, almost nobody expected Michael Penix Jr. to get selected before J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix, especially by the Falcons who seemingly already had their starting quarterback. However, the quarterback position is so valuable that if a team loves what they see in Dart, they could snatch him early despite the surrounding circumstances.
That being said, Dart is currently projected to be an early second-round selection after Ward and Sanders go in the first round. However, projecting where a player will get taken in the second round is entirely dependent on what those teams do in the first round. If the Titans select Cam Ward No. 1 overall, they won’t be taking Dart in the second round. However, if they take Abdul Carter or trade back, they could have their sights set on Dart. Assuming that neither of these teams select a quarterback in the first round, these are the most likely landing spots for Jaxson Dart:
No. 33 Cleveland Browns – The Browns have the No. 2 overall pick and if Cam Ward goes No. 1, they might not be sold on Shedeur Sanders. That would allow them to take a player like Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter and then look at Dart in the second round. The Browns need a new quarterback with so much uncertainty around Deshaun Watson’s future and the departure of Jameis Winston. Cleveland did acquire Super Bowl champion Kenny Pickett, so it could use Pickett as a placeholder and let Dart develop if he isn’t quite ready.
No. 34 Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in a unique position with the No. 1 overall pick but they don’t seem completely sold on Cam Ward. They could potentially take the most talented player in the draft, who many believe to be Abdul Carter, then look at Dart with the 34th pick. Just like the Browns with Pickett, the Titans could use Will Levis as a placeholder if Dart isn’t ready to start Week 1 and then hopefully Dart will develop and be ready to start by his sophomore season.
