Guess tonight’s Big 12 Tuesday for me—and, I suppose, for us all! I already wrote up the Arizona State at Kansas State Round 1 game with a 7:00pm ET tipoff here, and am now taking you even farther west to Utah for the late-night game. Even after their uninspiring two-game losing streak to close out the regular season (especially crushing given, like, just how tired BYU must have been on Saturday night, even though it was their Senior Night celebration), Utah feels a bit undervalued headed into the conference tournament. But UCF is no walk in the park, either. And, as per usual, I’ve got a preview, prediction, pick, and best bet for this Round 1 UCF at Utah college basketball game tonight.
Here’s how I’m playing it. I’ll be picking individual games throughout the week, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more to-the-minute, point-of-need analyses and plays throughout conference tournament week.
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Utah vs. UCF preview, prediction
The context
It sure feels like everyone’s taking the UCF side of this first-round matchup, doesn’t it? Folks love the Knights’ marquee foursome of Darius Johnson, Keyshawn Hall, Jordan Ivy-Curry, and Moustapha Thiam, even though they’ve failed to gel completely on the court this season. Many are taking the angle that a pleasant confluence of positives will surface for this team in the Big 12 tournament, especially because they’re facing Utah in the opening billing. After all, who doesn’t love a compelling ensemble to kick off a month of tournament subnarratives?
And, sure, I get how it feels the Knights have a situational advantage over the Utes. Utah heads into the Big 12 Tournament after a rollercoaster of a season, one that’s been as much about off-court drama as on-court performance. The Utes parted ways with Craig Smith on February 24th, shaking things up with Josh Eilert stepping in as interim coach and Alex Jensen already lined up to take over next season. All that uncertainty seems to have taken a toll—Utah has dropped four of its last five games, stumbling to a 16-15 record and 8-12 in conference play. One of those losses? A 76-72 defeat against UCF, the very team they’ll face in the first round.
A fresh start
However! What better time, I ask you, to regroup, rally, and galvanize yourself as a collective of players than the advent of a crisp, fresh tournament bracket? If you were this beleaguered Utes team, wouldn’t you be willing the end of the regular season as hard as you could?
Because, let’s just be clear: at a fundamental level, Utah holds a clear edge over UCF in several crucial areas. And, again, fundamentals are often the deciding factor—aside from scorching momentum—in these early-round tournament game. While both teams endeavor solid perimeter defenses—UCF ranking 11th and Utah 12th in three-point defense—the Utes are significantly better in overall efficiency, sitting 79th nationally compared to the Knights at 117th. Utah also dominates in areas that decide close games, ranking second in turnover margin and third in rebounding within the Big 12, while UCF lags at eighth and 14th, respectively. With the Utes also holding a better scoring margin in conference play, the numbers lean heavily in their favor.
That’s going to matter at some point in this game, and it’s important to once more point out that Utah’s play has actually been more discouraging, despite winning only one in their last five.
UCF vs. Utah pick, best bet
Maybe the lean on this one is too affected by a contrarian feel, but, having watched Utah’s last three games, I don’t feel as if they’re playing uninspired basketball. I think lots of folks expect UCF to come out and demand Utah play to their level, and that’s entirely possible. But we’re writing off Utah as if they’re an entirely lost cause, even though they’re slight favorites in this game.
It’s too small a spread to lay the points for me, and, given the hype around UCF, I’m surprised I’m not seeing more handle on their Moneyline. No matter. We’re playing the Utes confidently, here.
Best bet: Utah -2.5 (-102)
Tail the Utes to prove they’re favorites in this game with a cover and a win with me in the DKN betting group here!
Want to approach your March Madness Bracket with the same precision as the top 1% of bracket pool winners? Check out what the PoolGenius optimizer has to offer!
