At this point, the Cleveland Cavaliers are virtually guaranteed to be the first seed in the Eastern Conference and they’re virtually guaranteed to win their first-round series against whichever team with a losing record advances out of the Play-In Tournament. The most interesting race in the East is the three-way battle for the fourth seed between the Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers, and Detroit Pistons.
Right now, Milwaukee has the edge, a game ahead of both the Pacers and Pistons. But a lot will be determined tonight when the Bucks travel to Indiana for a nationally-televised 7:30 p.m. ET clash. Both teams have some injury concerns: both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are probable for Milwaukee, and the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton is in danger of missing his fourth straight game with a hip issue.
The Bucks are 2.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-135 on the Moneyline) and the point total is set to 236. Meanwhile, Indiana is +114 on the Moneyline.
Damian Lillard U6.5 Assists (-125)
Since the start of 2025, the Pacers have proven that it was no fluke that they made the Eastern Conference Finals last season, with a 19-10 record and the league’s eighth-best net rating. That improvement has happened on both ends of the ball; in 2024, Indiana had the eighth-worst defense in basketball, but since then, it’s had the 12th-best. Haliburton has started to become more consistent on both sides of the floor, playing closer to the form that made him an All-NBA honoree in 2023-24. The problem is, the Pacers have still been mediocre at guarding opposing playmakers, conceding the 11th-most assists, including the sixth-most in the last month.
I just think 6.5 assists is a relatively high line for any player on a team with two capable ball-handlers that got deeper at the trade deadline by dealing the relatively unplayable Khris Middleton for the somewhat more versatile Kyle Kuzma. Playmaking hasn’t really been Lillard’s priority since the All-Star break, as he’s recorded six or fewer assists in each of his past six games, including against teams like the Atlanta Hawks and Denver Nuggets who have been even worse against opposing passers than Indiana has. Before the All-Star break, Lillard averaged 13.8 potential assists per game, but that figure has dropped to just 10.9 since the intermission.
Myles Turner U16.5 Points (-125)
Turner is a very consistent scorer, having recorded between 14 and 17 points in each of his last five games, and he hasn’t seen an increase in his usage rate throughout Haliburton’s absence in the way that Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, and Bennedict Mathurin have, so whether or not Haliburton plays, his production should be more or less unaffected. That doesn’t bode well for tonight’s game, given that he’s only scored 17 or more points in 20 of his 56 games and once in his last five. Also, while Milwaukee’s defense has been only slightly above average overall, it’s been relatively solid against opposing big men.
If Turner fails to make much of an offensive impact tonight, it’ll be because of the Bucks’ giant, roving free safety, Antetokounmpo. This season, opponents have shot 6.7 percentage points worse on shots within six feet of the basket than usual with Antetokounmpo as the nearest defender, the 13th-best figure among 85 players who have played at least 50 games and guarded at least four such attempts per game. There’s a reason why the Bucks have conceded the sixth-fewest points in the paint this season. Plus, Antetokounmpo has been in the league’s top two in free throw attempts per game in each of the last five seasons, and Turner averages the 12th-most fouls per game among 70 players who have appeared in at least 50 games and play 30 minutes per game. If Antetokounmpo coaxes Turner into foul trouble, he won’t get enough playing time to crack 17 points.
Giannis Antetokounmpo U0.5 Blocks (+150)
The future first-ballot Hall of Famer is obviously a tremendous rim protector, as I discussed in the previous section. But he’s most renowned for his defensive versatility than for his pure prowess around the rim. Part of what makes him such a great all-around defender is that he doesn’t take unnecessary risks at the rim while leaping for blocks. He wasn’t a particularly prolific shot-blocker — ranking just 40th in the category — in 2019-20, when he won both the MVP and Defensive Player of the Year awards.
Still, especially coming off a calf strain that cost him six games prior to the All-Star break and hopefully with a long playoff run ahead, Antetokounmpo has no reason to risk his body late in the season. After recording at least one block in each of the first six games after returning from his injury, he hasn’t done so in four games, and since the intermission, he ranks just 284th of 450 players in contested two-pointers per game. Despite a general lack of size, Indiana has done a great job avoiding blocks. On a season-long basis, the Pacers have allowed the ninth-fewest blocks per game.
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